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My rain gauge broke and their hasn't been enough interesting weather to motivate me to order a new one. It looks pretty wet here this morning. I heard it pouring around 10 last evening.

VT yeah being further west and away from these NW-SE boundaries. NE of that cooler.

+2 to +3.5 in this neck of the woods.

Just under 0.5” yesterday and about 2.4” for April.

Tue has near 80° potential…probably more like mid to upper 70s though.

Picked up 0.63 yesterday and 2.30” for April.

Just over an inch here for the month.

Had a couple of heavier downpours yesterday for a total of 0.71" (same as @Interstate). 3.22" for the month as things begin to green up.

This is is new to me. 2-3 month lagged response?? One thing I will need to look at when doing my post season analysis next week of the connection to +WPO to the more active Pac jet, as last season was strongly -WPO. It may be that this analysis is difficult to do on a seasonal level, and it needs to be analyzed on a weekly basis. Additionally, I'm sure it's not a perfect correlation (increased PAC jet strength/=WPO), either.

Saturday starting to look like a really good rainfall for most of SC, central and eastern NC. Same system in January would be a banger

I am happy that we got one of the earliest SSWs on record back in late November. It was a big reason that this was the first winter with below average temperatures and above average snowfall in 11 years around NYC Metro. It’s possible that if the SSW had occurred later in the season, then with the lag could have resulted in the benchmark track coming too late in March when temperatures would have been more marginal for heavy snows along the coast. As it was the SSW occurred in late November with a 2-3 month lagged response for the BM KU track to materialize. December snows were all Northern Stream clippers.

.82" which puts me at 2.42' for month. Just over 50%[emoji769] of normal. We are not in good shape if we don't get a top 20 wet May. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

0.92". Not the frcst 2"+ but I'll take it. Fert went down last night

This is our rainy day? Are we just going to stein our way to November?

Low of 48 with .37” of rain.

I'm really sorry to hear this. That cold February followed by March warmth followed by April 8th freeze then hyper Summer before the 2.6-3std deviation freeze on 21st was the perfect trap. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Looks meh there.

Agreed, there were some competing forces. I have also mentioned that last season still had a notable dearth of true coastals, February blizzard not withstanding. However, we were still able to produce above average snowfall because it was consistently so anomalously cold. I think it was a combination of factors....I agree CC is playing a hand, but it's also important not to get carried away with over attribution. There are other reasons last season was not a 1995 redux....most notably, the solar cycle was somewhat more hostile and there wasn't as much high latitude blocking. There was indeed a far amount last season given the high solar/strong -QBO combo, but 1995 featured one of the more impressive seasonal blocking displays on record given the ascending solar phase shortly after min. That being said, I do agree 1995 was a decent analog in some respects...it was one of my main ENSO analogs. I did try to address all of this in my write-up. The Limitation of Traditional Conceptualizations In A Warming Climate The Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) attempts to remove the trend due to global warming in an effort to produce a measure that is of more direct relevance to changes in tropical convection driven by SST anomalies, rather than the general warming around the globe. This is similar to the issues addressed with respect to the original PDO patterns in that the general background warming alters these traditional relationships. Just as the west Pacific warm pool enhances the general cold phase of the Pacific despite the general warming along the coast of the western CONUS, it also strengthens the proclivity for the MJO to frequent the MC in a similar fashion to canonical La Nina despite any competing forces. In this case, the competing force is perhaps some heightened convection and vertical ascent in the vicinity of the dateline relative to what would normally be expected for a cool ENSO event. Thus it is probably unreasonable to expect as consistently of a cold pattern as seen in an older analog, such as 1995-1996, due to the increased baseline tendency for MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions. Note the absence of subsidence in the vicinity of the dateline in the traditional weak and east-based La Niña composites. However, the most recent weak and east-based events are not devoid of this Modoki like subsidence in this area, rather it is just more subdued. This is indicative of considerable periods of MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions, albeit less pronounced than in a canonical La Niña that is more west-based. This is also illustrated by the aforementioned increase in the Pacific jet over time. How this manifests in terms of the RONI is that these modern La Niña events often have stronger RONI values due to the west Pacific warm pool accentuating the cool ENSO influence. This is what feedbacks into the pattern that reenforces the cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan that embodies the +WPO regime, and strengthens the jet. Below is the progression over the past quarter of a century in the north Pacific relative to the intensity of the Aleutian low, as the attendant Hadley Cell has continued to expand northward. Note that this western Pacific warmth was less pronounced in the older La Nina analog composite, which is why the jet was weaker in the mean. Given that the 2017 La Nina had an ASO RONI value of -.71 and ultimately peaked at -1.24(.53), and the ASO 2021 value was -.91 and descended to -1.23 (.32), the anticipated peak range from the current ASO value of -.78 is between -1 and -1.2. This range is essentially a compromise between the slightly lower range suggested by the aforementioned analogs, and current guidance, which is supportive of a slightly higher peak of -.9, which has been inching lower. The forecast range is on the periphery of weak and moderate designation, although it will likely be considered weak due to both the paltry ONI and 90 day SOI of 6.47, as well as a lack of the discernible Pacific pressure dipole that is characteristic of well established cool ENSO.

Another nice weekend incoming here.

This was the 8th warmest March 1st to April 29th for NYC at 50.8°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Warmest March 1 April 29 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1945-04-29 53.2 0 2 2012-04-29 52.8 0 3 2010-04-29 52.7 0 4 1921-04-29 52.1 0 5 2024-04-29 51.7 0 6 2016-04-29 51.0 0 7 2023-04-29 50.9 0 8 2026-04-29 50.8 0 9 2025-04-29 50.7 0 10 1985-04-29 50.2 0 11 1946-04-29 50.1 0 12 2021-04-29 50.0 0 - 2002-04-29 50.0 0 - 1977-04-29 50.0 0 13 1991-04-29 49.9 0 - 1903-04-29 49.9 0 14 1973-04-29 49.7 0 15 1979-04-29 49.5 0 16 1998-04-29 49.4 0 - 1986-04-29 49.4 0 - 1976-04-29 49.4 0 17 1910-04-29 49.2 0 18 2020-04-29 49.1 0 - 2006-04-29 49.1 0 - 1990-04-29 49.1 0 - 1987-04-29 49.1 0 19 1968-04-29 49.0 0 20 2000-04-29 48.9 0 - 1981-04-29 48.9 0 21 2022-04-29 48.8 0 22 2008-04-29 48.7 0 - 1938-04-29 48.7 0 - 1878-04-29 48.7 0 23 1963-04-29 48.5 0 24 2019-04-29 48.4 0 - 1913-04-29 48.4 0 25 2009-04-29 48.3 0 - 1995-04-29 48.3 0

0.05", 2.22" for month, a number of stream gauges with extremely low conditions https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/maryland/

Getting to the point where we can pull BN days and we’ll still say it was a nice day. Like 65/35 with full sun.

Some stations in NNE really aren’t AN. It’s also typically a cool place in April. AN there still is cooler than SNE. Meh.

Temps in April above March levels? Wine?

Fair enough, but all else being equal, I would still bet on +PDO developing during a stronger El Nino....especially given the past few events have been accompanied by -PDO.