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Increasing loud thunder and 70F here in Greenville, N.C. as storms are moving rapidly from SW to NE. I take it this is the first of the two cold fronts moving through. Possible snow showers late tomorrow night which would be crazy for this time of year.

^Ok, I've plotted Tropical OLR and found that subsurface temperature anomalies near the thermocline are actually more impactful. You see the correlation increase to almost double and the same goes for vs 850mb wind, 250mb wind, sea-level pressure. Matching Tropical Pacific OLR though, which is "Weak La Nina-like" right now, comes out to a -NAO in Nov and Dec then switches to +NAO for Jan and Feb. Curious how he got -NAO for Jan and Feb.

Keep on a pushing...

Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 · 13h The algorithm is based entirely on outgoing longwave radiation data in the tropics. The OLR diagnostic algorithm is explained and assessed here: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.962 And the association with the extratropical circulation is diagnosed through the method of constructed analogs: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/7/mwr-d-12-00223.1.xml Since the algorithm does not include any explicit information about the ocean (it includes what is implicit in OLR anomalies), and since the OLR signal is projected forward based on how similar OLR signals moved in the past, it will do poorly when the ocean subsurface is undergoing strong changes. In the short term (e.g., next 2 months), the results are reasonable, but in this particular event, there is risk of El Niño being forced by strong subseasonal variability (February through May). Should that occur, the verification data would diverge from the forecast.

0.22" , still dzl at obs

You can see the much heavier echoes pushing to the west over the lake. https://imgur.com/a/qR2NywE

Can you elaborate on what you mean? Bust warm or bust cold? What's going on in 11-12 in the NE Pacific?

Moderate to heavy snow here now.

Since 2012 there has been a really strong correlation between Summer SLP, and negative SLP anomaly 60-90N and the following Winter having a ridge at 90N. It has worked almost every single time, almost a 0.70, or 85% correlation. Doesn't work as well before 2012, but we had that pattern strongly this year so it's no surprise so many seasonal models are popping a Winter anomaly ridge at 90N.

What's a 100-day Lowpass Constructed Analog?

That might be a hundred burger at your summit, lol.

Thick fog here

Saw a flash and heard thunder a moment later.

Radar lighting up

What an unbelievable environment, to have your team false start every single play .

I tied my low record at -5 in 1982

This big block in e Canada-Greenland I think is going to yield an equally pretty big storm response(s?) by Thanksgiving.

Was in the “eye” but it’s starting to fill in. Heavy rates continued just 10 miles to my west and southwest. I’m sure they’ve cleared a foot. Sitting at 8” IMBY.

I would say that 15-16 one was -AO. It actually doesn't help us much when the mean ridge is at 90N.. that puts a mean trough at 45N.. there was some ridging that extended down the Davis Strait though. Since 2013, 19/19 Winter months with NAO value >1.12 have all been positive (CPC)! 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO since 11-12, and we only had 1 average negative NAO Winter in that time.. which was 20-21, but that only came out to -0.12/month. but that was our lowest NAO Winter since 10-11. We've had NAO blocks during that time, but they usually don't last more than 10-15 days.

1976 late Dec thru Jan 1977 persistent unending cold for over a month. I think DCA hit 32 for a low for 30 consecutive days DCA was like 26F for the monthly average 1979 Very snowy and very cold 1982 Bsck to back cold Sundays . Many records set 1985-Inaguration day and week one of coldest ever. -2 air temp and 30 mph sustained coldest wind chill ever experienced personally by me 1989 late Nov thru Dec Incredibly cold record setting period. Nothing close to Dec 89 in temps since then 1994 -Jan largely considered the granddaddy of cold days and several brutal cold shots 2007 Feb . Very mild Dec and Jan then -7 Feb with incredible lake effect snow. Coldest daytime wind chill for me of -15 on Lake Ontario with 10F and 40mph winds. 5-7’ of accumulated snow everywhere and not drifts. Those were 10+’ There are some others since then so please add them or any others from the time period I used.

For all the pretty colors on the radar, I’m at 0.09”

Ray’s nightmare.

Yeah this is decent. More thunder and now steady rain...

Monitor whats going on in the Delmarva -I95 corridor... VERY sharp trough developing eastern USA. WPC D1 from this afternoon mirrored the SPC HREF D1... looks too low in my NOWcast mode as I look at the radar and multiple models. Am looking for 1/4-3/4" for much of the subforum by Noon tomorrow between 7P tonight and Noon Monday. This past Fri-through Noon Monday should see 0.3-1.25" for the 4 day period by the time we look at CoCoRaHs range of dates.

Need some of that 40+dbz shit over the lake imby