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It’s the Icon but it damn near delivers next week

new gfs looking good

PLRA pelting his cruiser and washing off the urine from the homeless person peeing on it.

I think it would be more of a background Nina state with SE ridging. anyways, I don’t know why people just can’t post things without people, taking it and blowing things out of proportion. I’m optimistic for some fun and well aware of the caveats. Just relax, sit back, and enjoy the latitudinal gradient. J/K.

Storm of the century raging 75 years ago today, with winds gusting up to 100 mph in New York.

12Z GFS rolling...

Very strong Nino in December is very warm and snowless. I'll skip that..December 65,72,82,86,91,97,15 and 22...good luck with that!

Cant help but start to feel optimistic as guidance continues to hone in on a good, potentially REAL good, hit for LOT. If we get rug pulled on this one I may jump into the river.

Well definitely you but hopefully me also.

Meteorological winter less than 1 week away!

ny weather these days dry and windy..

Decent call here. Just a trough swinging in the S areas, tho. Happy Thanksgiving EV1!!

I could really do something with this but will refrain.

It is a west to east flow keeping cold bottled up

The last two EPS runs have been mighty impressive, which is usually the guidance suite you want on your side. Too far out to be super confident but if we don't see any sig backsliding, chances are pretty decent even at this lead time for the biggest synoptic event in this part of the subforum since the two weeks of winter in January 2024 (which isn't saying all that much given the lack of snow last winter). Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Riding the rain/snow line on models. Imagine that. Lol. Scary place to be. I can't afford any north bumps.

Interesting. At least at looks to be moving through at a pretty good clip, so might just be a temporary excursion in Phase 8.

It’s not fast Pacific flow. Quite the opposite with the ridging. You’re getting confused.

I think a bias requires an actual forecast. I would admit that you you use reverse psychology as a defense mechanism if I were you.

I’m not throwing any towels in yet. I’m quite sure we’ll have a few accumulating snow storms in Dec.. but the duration of the favorable period shrinking this week , losing the NAO.. is a growing worry. Weeklies last year looked good almost each run and we know how that worked. I’ve hated the look of the fast flow Pacific flow all autumn .. allowing for 1 coastal and any others blowing up over the Stellwagen Bank . All that allows for are fast moving lake cutters and windy CAA. If trends continue negatively the next few few days .. we’ll all be throwing in our towels into a pile in the lockeroom looking at each others limply hanging junk .

This is so silly..

@canderson Everytime I watch his videos and see his Texas and Texas a&m characters I can't help but envision your family down there. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Once the MJO gets to phase 8 , it kills the southeast ridge and then the the polar vortex presses in. The coldest part of December is likely from the 15th to the 25th.

Rain to wet snow, then it'll freeze up to a ice block. Typical early season snow. UP MI looking at 3ft in some spots with syn/LES combo. Here in town, I think 6" would be a big surprise. 4" max is my thinking. Warm lake. But higher terrain should do well. NWS DLH is good at overestimating. Most storms barely hit min guidance around TH.