All Activity

You didn’t even look. Just regurgitating what Cranky says in tweets

on a smoothed ensemble mean, that's damn warm. 1.5-3C who knows, the 6z ops are actually fairly cool. no one knows

A degree or two above old time norms isn't getting you in any record books.

Guess drought is done or been done.

Hopefully things will move progressively which could become the case. I will be in Kitty Hawk first week of August good times in the Banks, but yea better weather is preferred.

Impressive area of convection formed this morning. This looks a lot more like a tropical storm than most other early season slop I've seen. If it holds up it can easily overperform the models.

Over the top warm up for the 4th.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DLq0ztmMx6U/?igsh=MTF2M2c0ZnJ5YXp2Ng== This yours too?

Yeah doesn't look hot at all. Comfy, cool

What a perfect morning.....feels like September.

Not top 5 in my opinion like some are saying

Wishing you all a Happy 4th of July! 53 degrees this morning .

63 and gorgeous out

Low of 61.3 this morning. Some elevated wildfire smoke in the skies today unfortunately but the majority of it should stay away from the area

Yea. That would seemingly fit a descending solar max peak (but still elevated solar and geomag) and -QBO being unfavorable for predominant -AO/-NAO winter blocking. The low arctic sea ice also playing a role IMO

Not hot. Back and forth.

Crazy warm SSTs off the East Coast. Could see some homegrown tropical systems later this season. And with all that ridging some of them could be steered west.

This extreme subtropical SST warming leads to a semi-permanent -PDO +AMO pattern with amplified subtropical ridges.

59/58 bright sun in Holyoke.. gonna be a sparkling day

My confidence in a solidly negative PDO winter is growing by the day, -IOD and -PMM seem like good bets as well. As far as ENSO, I’m still favoring a cold-neutral (-ENSO), however I think a weak La Niña is possible, at least in the RONI sense, I can care less what the ONI does. I think the MEI may go into weak Nina territory too given the SOI behavior over the last few months up until the present. The orientation of the ENSO cold anomalies; possible Modoki? Remains to be seen. As far as the Atlantic….the +AMO is never ending

Extended looks warm

GFS and ECM have 4-5" rain in the extended

cant wait to bump this one ya not even close..

Was a nice little thunderboomer with some pea sized hail i love pop up storms

After casually watching a window for TC genesis in the Gulf or off the SE coast the last week, the signal began to focus on disturbance spawned by a stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast. A weak area of low pressure has developed and Invest 92L has rising odds to become at least a moisture laden tropical depression as it meanders the next few days. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Near the Southeastern United States (AL92): Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend if the low remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake