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scheiße...

Wish we had this kind of weather AND the sun setting after 8:30pm.

It’s been a while since we had a 10”+foot hurricane swell in August.

Just an FYI...it's not wise to make generalized statements based primarily on one station's data. Due to a major increase in UHI in Phoenix, that station has a much larger temperature increase trend compared to places that haven't seen that much UHI increase. PHX has seen their mean temperature go up nearly 3.5 degrees since the 1960s. Meanwhile, Flagstaff (which has seen virtually no increase in UHI) has only warmed about a degree over that same period, much more in line with global temp trends. Tucson has seen 1.5 degrees warming. So that chart, while accurate for Phoenix, is certainly exaggerated for the region overall.

Thunderstorms that popped up along the seabreeze have resulted in moderate to heavy rain here since 1:45. I’m >1” and adding to that. So, I’m >13” for MTD!

Tickling 90 here. 88F

This could do a BM track and still give us cirrus. Not even close.

No

Big shift west on the 12z EPS but still curves out south of here

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise.

Very impressive all or nothing rainfall pattern this summer from 2-14 inches. A few localized well above average readings. While many areas are only near normal to record dry over the period. The added heat really dried things out more than would be the case with a much cooler summer. So even areas that are near average are showing drier vegetation and soil moisture. Data for June 1, 2025 through August 16, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.40 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.29 NJ WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 12.70 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 12.24 CT HERITAGE VILLAGE 0.2 E CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.75 NJ SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.65 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.51 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.50 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 11.32 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 11.25 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.19 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.17 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.43 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.33 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.32 NY SPRING VALLEY 1.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.32 NY NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W CoCoRaHS 10.14 NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.13 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 10.09 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.01 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 9.99 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.81 NY WARWICK 3.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.62 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9.47 NY NELSONVILLE 0.3 S CoCoRaHS 9.31 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.20 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 9.05 NJ HARRISON COOP 8.95 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 8.75 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.69 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.64 NJ MONTVALE 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.63 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 8.59 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 8.51 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.47 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 8.42 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 8.37 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 8.36 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 8.22 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 8.18 NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 8.08 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 8.07 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.05 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 8.03 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 7.88 CT DANBURY COOP 7.82 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 7.74 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 7.74 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 7.71 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 7.71 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 7.68 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.67 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7.67 NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 7.66 NY BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.60 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 7.59 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 7.59 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 7.58 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 7.56 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 7.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.50 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 7.45 NY STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.44 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 7.43 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.40 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 7.40 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 7.37 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.37 NJ JERSEY CITY 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 7.35 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 7.34 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7.34 NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 7.33 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 7.26 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.22 CT BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.21 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 7.17 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 7.10 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 7.10 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.99 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 6.96 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.93 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.91 NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.89 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 6.85 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.83 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.81 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.80 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 6.79 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.77 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.73 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.72 NY SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 6.68 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 6.65 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 6.60 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 6.59 NJ WOOD-RIDGE 0.2 N CoCoRaHS 6.58 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.57 NJ WAYNE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.56 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.52 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 6.50 NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.48 NJ OAKLAND 1.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.43 NY ST. JAMES COOP 6.41 NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 6.41 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.40 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.39 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 6.39 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 6.30 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 6.29 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.29 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 6.28 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.27 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 6.27 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.25 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 6.25 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.19 CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.13 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6.10 NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.08 NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.02 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.99 NY CENTERPORT COOP 5.90 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.90 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.89 NY BROOKLYN 2.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.88 CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 5.83 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 5.81 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.80 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.80 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 5.80 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 5.76 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.76 NJ LYNDHURST TWP 1.6 NW CoCoRaHS 5.75 NY SYOSSET COOP 5.75 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 5.73 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 5.72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 5.72 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.72 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 5.70 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 5.69 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 5.67 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.66 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 5.61 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 5.59 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 5.57 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.54 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.51 NJ MAYWOOD 0.2 SW CoCoRaHS 5.49 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 5.47 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 5.46 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.46 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.43 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.41 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.39 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 5.36 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.35 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.32 NY AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.29 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.19 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 5.13 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.12 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.00 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 4.99 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.97 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 4.96 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.93 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.93 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 4.90 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.90 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.89 CT GUILFORD COOP 4.88 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 4.70 NJ FAIR LAWN 0.9 E CoCoRaHS 4.61 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 4.61 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 4.59 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.58 CT DURHAM 1.2 W CoCoRaHS 4.58 NJ CRANFORD TWP 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 4.56 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 4.51 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 4.50 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 4.46 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.42 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.36 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 4.35 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 4.23 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.23 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 4.18 CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.18 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 4.14 CT OLD LYME 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.03 NY HICKSVILLE 1.4 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.93 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.78 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.78 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.70 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.67 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.66 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 3.65 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.51 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 3.50 CT GROTON 2.9 E CoCoRaHS 3.49 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.45 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.44 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.42 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3.37 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.33 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 3.30 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.24 NY COMMACK 1.3 SW CoCoRaHS 3.19 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 3.19 NY SAYVILLE 0.0 N CoCoRaHS 3.17 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.14 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.95 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.90 NJ RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S CoCoRaHS 2.84 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 2.75 NY BAYPORT 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.40 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.34

0/37 12z gfs ens members take the storm anywhere near NE

Here it is:

Vety popup isolated

Gonna be close - clouds meandering in CNJ but plenty of breaks. made it to 86 here. tomorrow next shot at 90 and then we'll see if next Sat/Sun can get sneaky 90s in the hot areas, enhanced if the week continues dry.

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 48 NJ CRANFORD COOP 46 NY BRONX COOP 45 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 41 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 37 CT DANBURY COOP 37 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 35 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 34 NY WEST POINT COOP 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 31 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 27 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 26 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 25 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 24 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 24 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 22 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 22 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21 NY MINEOLA COOP 20 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 18 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 18 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 16 NJ CRANFORD COOP 14 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 12 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 12 NY BRONX COOP 11 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 CT DANBURY COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4 NJ HARRISON COOP 4 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 4 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 3 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 CT DANBURY COOP 3

This also works for multi-quoting in the same thread unless you use a browser from 1997.

Hurricane Models continue with a W track. Now as far as 73.1 W 29.3 N The consistent Westward track continues (no panic yet) Tell you if I lived in New England its very concerning.

I imagine for folks who lust after high surf this week is your Christmas

Impressive https://x.com/Sekai_WX/status/1956739362927841415

Yea pretty large shift with major implications verbatim for SE Bahamas and would get some coastal flooding and sustained Tropical Storm force winds for Hatteras.

Except for the heat and humidity, it looks like a fall day here with people blowing and raking big piles of leaves. Trees are very stressed in this severe drought

Euro came well west with Erin. Outerbanks should watch this carefully

Highest Atlantic Hurricane ACE seasons (2016 and before uses NOAA and Wunderground data, 2017 and later uses NOAA data only): 1 2005 247.65 (winter of 2005-06: cold December, very warm January, near normal temps in February, but a large snowfall on the 11th) 2 1933 235.785 (winter of 1933-34: backloaded winter, snowy February and March, coldest February on record) 3 1893 231.0738 (winter of 1893-94: near normal temps, near normal snowfall, with the bulk in February) 4 1995 227.5513 (winter of 1995-96: wall-to-wall cold and snow, most famous for the Blizzard on January 7) 5 1950 227.1413 (winter of 1950-51: very low snow winter, near normal temps) 6 2004 226.94 (winter of 2004-05: slightly above average snowfall, with notable snowstorm on January 22nd, near normal temps) 7 1926 225.7788 (winter of 1926-27: near normal temps, below average snowfall) 8 2017 224.8775 (winter of 2017-18: slightly above average snowfall, due to snowiest March on record with slightly above average temps due to a near record warm February) 9 1961 196.95 (winter of 1961-62: backloaded winter, snowy February and March, below average temps) 10 1998 181.8838 (winter of 1998-99: above average temps, below average snowfall) 11 2020 180.3725 (winter of 2020-21: slightly above average temps, near normal snowfall, with th bulk in February) 12 1955 178.585 (winter of 1955-56: below average temps due to cold December, near normal snowfall, with March snowstorm)

Huge shift west on the Euro NC probably gets in on some fun