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Yeah I have a couple of maples almost completely defoliated after just a little cover. It’s still a nice fall, harvesty vibe, but I’ve never seen this much dull leaf drop this early.

After 4 gross days in the 80s, a gorgeous Fall week on tap

not getting a coastal climber in this pattern

First of all, congrats. That’s awesome! second of all, every anniversary, my wife likes to remind me that the only time in the last 12 years that it rained on our wedding date was our actual wedding day. It rains, it rains. You’ll figure it out and enjoy the moment regardless.

What does this mean ?

I used to work there, visit the Bullard Tavern.

Saturday’s rain will be an Imelda redux, I’m calling it.

The 12z runs completely diverged on this idea of a coastal storm next week think we need a few days to iron this one out. I am not sure what the NAO is showing for next week cannot see it on the NWS website (government shutdown maybe?) Looks like the models are trying to trend toward blocking the storm from coming up the coast albeit it only one set of models runs except the 12z gfs so wait and see time.

Models seem to be shifting Wed's rain to.... wait for it... drum roll.... north and west of the city again! Seems like the front comes through in the morning which is the worst time heating-wise to generate showers/storms. So it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it fizzle out.

If we can get a sign up sheet for 3/4 of normal snow, I think most of us would sign on for that. A couple moderate storms and a major, then some mood flakes and whiteners here and there. All day long. Not asking for a lot here….

10mb events are usually uniform.. you'll usually get a smooth + or - mean. That's a pretty good one though, I know in the N. Hemisphere the monthly mean never really exceeds +1800m (and that one's +1100) I will have to go through and manually make 10mb analogs.. I was incorrect in saying it's AAO. AAO is actually a 500mb anomaly, not 10mb. There isn't a known index that calculates S. Hemisphere monthly 10mb anomaly... so the roll forwards indicating "random" is not really a correct response to anomalous 10mb September.

Thanks Chuck! Wow, that looks just like the 13, 14, 17, 19, and 24 composite!

Thanks, Chuck. Do you have the S Hemispheric map of how Sept of 2025 looked at 10 mb anomalywise? JB didn’t post it.

We were going over the spine on … Rte 9? In S VT yesterday. Already stick season in parts of there.

Too early to say

Where is Garner Minshew when you need him?

The issue is that Lamar might not want to resign after the next 2 years of his contract are up.. unless they fix things big time. I never got Ray Lewis vibes from Lamar Jackson about playing for the Ravens.

Yeah, if he's saying the defense is better than last year that's really out of touch. He must be riding the injuries and a tough schedule. You don't give up nearly 50 points to a 1-3 team at home. This is after KC scored the most offensive points in 3 years the week before, and etc. etc. It's like, really bad.

Leftovers from Little Ice Age, those temps were never sustainable climate change or not. And, even by that time's standards that winter was harsh as per the article. North America was estimated to be up to 3.5C colder than the latest 30 year average. Which as we know for long time periods is an absolutely massive negative temp anomaly.

A stiff breeze right now would go to full stick season.

lol what a joke. I’ve tuned out his coach speak for 5+ years, but gimme a damn break. Who’s the audience for this nonsense?

^You can do actual AAO correlations over the whole dataset, of 73 years, both signs included. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ Lead time (months): Let the index lead, Lag time (months): Let the pattern precede an AAO phase. Just going with January following a Sept AAO, this looks pretty "random"

Oh 100%… plenty of stuff to do and it still looks like fall foliage. Sounded like Jerry had a good time too and I finally got to put a face to the name after all these years. Normally I fight back when we have the usual discussion of every year the foliage is dull, because even lackluster is quite nice. But I’ve never seen it quite like this. Very dry. Multiple frosts and freezes. Now two days of mid-80s. The vegetation is just giving up; try again next year lol.