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Interesting, thought it be higher up my way.

I already gave the JMA credit for seeing the record TNH pattern for the 13-14 winter.

Convection and showers already moving North in the Southern most extent of the area.

WB 12Z EURO with rain totals through early Tuesday from remnants of Chantal.

Most recent Ray that what I was trying to say

Unfortunately, the best I’ve found archived is the 0.5 month lead like I posted. They did pretty well in Nov of 2015 for DJF 2015-6: I give them a B for the US as a whole -They did so-so in Nov 2016 for DJF 2016-7: my grade C for US overall -NOAA did well in 11/2017 for DJF 2017-8: A -They were absolutely awful in 11/2018 for 2018-9: F -2019-20 mediocre at best: C -2020-1 poor: D -2021-2 pretty good: B -2022-3 pretty good: B -2023-4 very good: A -2024-5 lousy: D —————— Summary of my overall US grades of Nov NOAA probabilities for DJF temps: 2013-4: C 2014-5: B 2015-6: B 2016-7: C 2017-8: A 2018-9: F 2019-20: C 2020-1: D 2021-2: B 2022-3: B 2023-4: A 2024-5: D Tally: A: 2 B: 4 C: 3 D: 2 F: 1 NOAA GPA for last 12 for UD as a whole: 2.3/C+ (not bad)

You complain about being called a denier; but, your posts are the same old denier talking points or charts. Long debunked. Science has moved on from this issue decades ago.

I couldn’t have timed that any better. That strike was right here . That’s anyone’s reaction

Cowering in a ball like wizzy seeing a garden spider.

How come you always come on here and ruin things?

80-100 maybe? Certain parts are Sandy and they do like that area. Super tall, it's the one on the left in this picture.

From the prolific lightning storm on July 1. This was a top one for me.Sound up ! https://ring.com/share/8241075f-eb3a-4d8e-aeda-53de2581ec00

The NAM's and the GFS only showing .25" or less from the depression rains that has to be wrong

Yeah good luck with that trough that 48 hours later goes back to big ridge.

We 12z GFS

Are there any wildfires going on in PA? We've got a Phoenix AZ type brown haze here in Tamaqua and the air has a bit of a smoky smell.

Ill believe it when I see it. Ive been hearing this for 2 decades now and still nothing close to rival those 1930s-50s heatwaves in terms of frequency, magnitude, and days in the 90s/100s here. In 2023 Detroit didnt eclipse 90° for the first time since 1915. Every single year in the aforementioned decades there was bad heat, some worse than others. Certainly some was dry, but not all. But the ENTIRE point of my post was the fact that there was no AC. Ive been researching the daily newspapers and it wasnt just the occasional deadly heatwave. Each summer in those years was filled with deadly heatwaves with the fatalities often listed in the papers. We know how bad tornadoes are for death, but in the pre-AC days the mere summer temperature was the most deadly aspect of the weather.

9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance.

Pour brewed beer in it?

Cloud magnet may be back but i think tue/wed will see breaks and be quite warm-hot. the period thu - sun looks like limited sun with a hung up front as the W atl ridge edges west enough to be nuisance.

NWS 11/15/2013 probabilities for DJF 2013-4 weren’t all that telling as they underdid the prospects for widespread cold though they hinted ok at where the coldest and warmest ended up being:

If the seasonal models were showing a warm or torch winter there is exactly 0.0% doubt that the same ones so against it being mentioned would be all over it. It always goes without saying that a model should never be taken verbatim, but wed have all these posts about why the models are catching on to something.

real What are lightning sprites? How to photograph them