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Probably highest in CT

yea assuming thats in the grass, couldn't tell but unless theres wood or a board under there

Blizzard of 96 had brutal cold in place ahead of it.

I bet Don has the answer to that one - or go back to Rays archive of storms which I plan on looking at once I get done shoveling......

Seeing a lot more faith in the AI side now...and I want to believe...but I dunno man. This should be a really good case study

6.5 morning and night

When was the last time we had significant snow with it being that cold in the tri state area? I feel like when it’s this cold storms always get suppressed to the south

Good time to remind the newbies to measure on a patio or snow board. Grass measurements will inflate by up to an inch.

Had car toppers here with light coverage on grass. ~1" maybe. Not a whole lot to yak about.

So, I have been digging through lots of verification for the AIFS. The one thing I notice over and over is that the EPS scores equal or better than the AIFS at days 4-5. At days 4-5 all deterministic models and AI models are fallible...sometimes very fallible in regards to dew point, windspeed, and temp-C. I Most papers that I have read this morning strongly recommend using a blend of models - EPS, Euro IFS, and AIFS. I have provided a link to one paper below. If you favor ensembles, NWP, or AI...there is probably something in that article for you. This will be a good test, but by no means is it the final test. Modeling is only as good as its programming and quality/quantity of data input. All modeling is much better inside of d4. If I was going to rank models...it would still be pretty much the following at d5....EPS, Euro AIFS EPS, Euro or AIFS. I would feel much better about the AIFS if it wasn't in the same camp as the UKMET which has low verification scores at this range and also with the AIGFS. But again, this will be an interesting comparison for sure! Right now, the AIFS is on the north side of guidance w/ the GFS suspiciously on the south side. My guess would be the solution is somewhere in between. However, I am reminded that most folks were skeptical that a chess bot(not AI) could defeat a grand master. The chess bot is now better. But in this case...pretty much all numerical modeling is a chess bot. We are just trying to see which chess bot is better. Here is the article I found out of Australia in regards to comparing AIFS vs IFS from AMETSOC. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/aies/4/4/AIES-D-25-0037.1.pdf Interesting quote... However, as with NWP models, the autoregressive nature of AIFS means that small errors are amplified over the forecast period, which causes AIFS (and HRES) to fall behind ENS in accuracy as the lead time increases. It is well established that blending models generally im- proves the accuracy relative to the best individual forecast [see e.g., Vannitsem et al. (2021)], and therefore, it is a com- mon approach in operational weather forecasts.

looks like ~7.3 or so, don't short yourself lmao.

Yea there seems to be a deamplifixstion trend in the 84 to 96 hr time-frame. If we can survive that this time, then we're golden.

Once we get to 84-96 hours, I’m sure we’ll see a reshuffling of models. No idea which way it’ll go.

After 12z run probably. Gotta get rid of the superstitious studs dawg. Embrace the thrill!

I drove from Annopoils area to Fenwick Island del this morning. Your area seems to have been the jack.

This weekend looks like we could see record breaking cold

close to 6 inches here all 3 events combined

its gonna be a big dog for many. Just hope that includes us

suppression depression. dont wanna think of it, but ya have to. 1048 HP is stoud and likely the bully on the block. Hopin it has a little give and as we see things trend back north that we get back into the goods.

6z GEFS was a beauty. Most of northern East TN in the 6+ mean. Some huge dogs showing 20"+ skewing it some though.

you should start the weekend storm thread ASAP not just because of the snow threat BUT also the incredible arctic airmass that will be in place starting later this week through the weekend.....and once we get past a certain number of pages break it up into part 2 - part 3 etc. etc. like we did for the 2010 Boxing day storm who's thread was started well in advance

Ben Noll being optimistic now lol

Yeah it’s a wet snow but drier than I thought. If that makes sense.

Taking my 2.5” from overnight with a smile. (That’s what she said?)