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The West has had two atmospheric river events so far this winter...probably technically one, but really two good storm cycle in Mammoth. We normally(I don't think) get the Pineapple Express until Nino winters. I wouldn't mind a strong STJ w/ so much cold lurking. The thing which interests me the most is HL blocking trapping part of the TPV, and forcing it southward. We are playing w/ house money right now since climatology supports our coldest weather at this time of year. It is probably one of the few times of year where I find the coldest wx model, and ride with it (with some confidence that other modeling is too warm). The main error was the GFS trying to extend a piece of the trough almost 1,000 miles to the West which just wasn't realistic. It has had some really weird runs since Thanksgiving. Another one is under way where it has a beautiful block over the top, but zonal flow underneath for a time - not realistic IMHO. I did notice that @Met1985said the GFS was the only model which got the mountain snow overnight correct. Other models were to dry. I suspect that is true for the 17th. I little 1-3" slider wouldn't surprise me if it occurs at night.

That was a nice squall. Nicely coated again

Looked like the first event pulled the BZ offshore for the second event, to my amateur eyes anyway

Great squall! Nice quick coating with plenty of wind.

RGEM is even spinning up a low in Louisiana in its la la range. as far as I can tell it is the only model with that feature: looped to see the spin:

Weather is frustrating today. Beer is not. So here’s a gem! My review as well from Untappd. Anyone in there, love a follow. Same screen name. Fresh berry and tropical fruit vibes. Fruity white grape with a splash of mango. Soft, zesty kiwi swirls, with orange sprinkles throughout. Well-balanced hop tone and texture. I’m honestly shocked I’d never tried this one before—love it!

We are almost in SMR! .

That lead aspect you annotated there is part of the problem when getting into this ordeal at sub-pattern scale discussion ... it's triggering and then whisking away the dynamics fuel for the leads engine.

I have seen less complaining at a Mah Jongg game. JFC.

Nina’s are exhausting

You're right, we might get something we might get nothing ... we might get everything. You covered it all. I wish everyone listened to you.

My gut tells me we're getting clipped by a moderate impact - It'll be by a system that "could have" been truly magnificent, but the interference is probably real and will mechanically limit the this lead's ability. It's well on it's way through hour 90 or so... then, it opens up like that - it opens because there's a non-linear offset. Not you, but to the general user: that is not something you can "see" on a chart. It's exposed via behavior - case in point, the unusual opening back up when the totality of the +PNA is still maxing. There's almost no other explanation for why that does that. Here's the thing.. that 2nd wave is entirely assimilated - unless there's been some sort of breakthrough in data gathering that I am less privy to, the source origin of the 2nd wave's guts are out over the Date Line. If that comes in weaker and/or the timing allows for a bigger gap, the lead will almost certainly grow more intense in lockstep with that correction. If anyone bothers, go back to the big hit by the GFS yesterday and compare the gap between the previous runs, you can see the big hit run was wider... anyway... I think when push comes to shove, the models are not that good? not enough to project 90% of reality when in this particularly unique situation with sudden onset +d(PNA) and handling too balls in the nut sack. The lead wave space is sampling now, and there's some GEFs and GFS and implications, so it triggering the physics enough in the model

Ahem I am the best forecaster here.

Wrap it up a tad sooner and it would’ve a nice CCB over SNE. Convection offshore playing games.

Would agree that 2026-27 looks promising. To maximize our chances we would need to achieve a mod-strong Modoki Nino or a weak-mod east based Nino (i don’t think we’ll get a west based Nino). Would say that if either of these outcomes occur the PDO should be at least neutral, further improving our chances. However, that is a season that needs to be a blockbuster. If we don’t achieve 25-40”+ then I’m not sure how the Mid-Atlantic scores.

Really wish they would stop running the operational models past 120 to be honest.

18th goes poof on the gfs

Seems like the west coast is experiencing that Pineapple Express you spoke on earlier. Id assume that’s causing some errors with each model. .

The more amplified storm here, completes negates anything two days later. Seems like, as usual, it’s one or the other, or nothing. Not both

I take 18z ai gfs for $2,000 Carver. It would be nice

I am mad at the models! The amount of digital snow they show for mid Atlantic that bust… something needs to be tweaked. .

This hobby can be truly tiresome. Our rei sucks.

Exactly. Last year there was multiple times they were lit up and it meant nothing

There were some runs that had a decent signal. But not really consistent.

Texans are gonna smoke the Steelers.