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Not minimizing this in any way but presentation on IR and radar is degrading as it comes in. Not going to make much difference though. At least it is not intensifying right up until landfall. Jet interaction, trof and vorticity interaction will maximize wind and maximize it well inland as well. There is little weather once that northern eye wall plows ashore, which it is doing right now. Not much on the other side of degrading eye. Looks like a two hour window of the worst of it for a given location along the coast. Official landfall should take place around 10pm +/- 30 minutes.

I think it will become more even distributed...I do agree that the EURO is overdoing the westward shift, as all guidance has been.

The storm was expected to max near 110mph and weaken near landfall. Is that changing?

Watching Reed Timmer channel. They are about to be in the eyewall.

Gonna be rough for the next 90 min or so. Good luck. Hope all goes well for you.

Just a rainstorm hurricane that the southeast needed.

No eye.

https://x.com/pappenheimwx/status/2108697812766441670/video/1?s=46

MAMMOTH ALERT !!!! ALEET ALEET! A potent cold front will slam into the Sierra Saturday possibly mixing with moisture from Rachel which could result in some wet snow Sunday into Monday in Mammoth and Palisades with some accumulating snow at elevations above 8000 feet. Uh-oh. What will super nino moisture do to the Sierra ski resorts at high elevations like 9000 feet this winter?

I was not, nor do I deny CC.

I'm talking 3 months from now.

City day cancelled sunday. Will try Monday. Took off

Worst conditions by far currently, winds high TS sustained with hf gusts, very intense as darkness comes in! .

it's so funny how climate change deniers are using climate change to downplay the strength of this nino

A few really good comparison graphics from the CPC oceans monitoring posted today. Such an impressive look this year compared to the others.

Latest blend- looks like an inch or so across the region. Probably a nice stratiform rain event. Beneficial.

a few Pensacola Beach cams i found are all up still as of this post - south view: https://visitpensacolabeach.com/web-cams/ - west view: https://www.visitpensacola.com/webcams/west-view-webcam/ - east view: https://www.visitpensacola.com/webcams/pensacola-beach-looking-east/ - quietwater beach: https://www.visitpensacola.com/webcams/pensacola-beach-santa-rosa-sound/ - casiono beach: https://streaming.myescambia.com:8082/ - north bridge: https://streaming.myescambia.com:8080/ - south bridge https://streaming.myescambia.com:8083/

They had Cooper fucking Rush the first 2 games lol. Cant get much worse. Scored 32 points total I think. With Penix back, 80 points the last 2 games. Defenses have to defend the pass and their impressive run game. The dude is a gifted passer- he just needs to stay healthy. Bad knees are his problem. Tall task for the Raven's D, which hasn't been very good, and the offense is limited with Huntley- he is a below avg passer. Hopefully they can run for 300 yds, but then there is the issue of the OL being a bit of a mess at this point.

$$$

there are crazy short flights. ATL-CSG ATL-CHA. AA runs some short ones from DFW too to places like GGG/LAW

Lowest pressure is exact. I have never observed these cells (inland CFL) move as fast as they are. To my fellow members in harms way be safe and hunker down y'all!

Why is there even a flight from Atlanta to Tallahassee? That's within drivable distance.

Radar velocities on this one are insane. Likely going to be some high gusts recorded

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Advisory Number: 10 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 An intermittent warm spot in the CDO of Simon has been present since this morning, co-located with a small pinhole-like eye noted in visible imagery. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, though this is very uncertain due to the very small size of Simon and intensity estimates range from around 65 kt (DMINT) to 97 KT (RCM-1 SAR). The SAR data this morning indicated the system has an RMW near 5 n mi, highlighting how small it is. Simon has continued to strengthen today, although at a slightly slower rate since this morning. Further rapid intensification is still anticipated but the exact timing of when the rate might pick up again is highly uncertain. Small hurricanes like Simon are particularly susceptible to large and rapid fluctuations in intensity. In the short term, no changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which remains at the high end of the guidance envelope. The main challenge with this forecast is how sensitive it is to the exact track Simon takes over the next 2 days and whether or not it moves inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. A track slightly east of the NHC official forecast track will cause Simon to quickly dissipate and minimize the threat of wind impacts farther north in Mexico. However, a track just to the west would likely allow Simon to move much farther north as a hurricane. At this time, the difference between these track scenarios is less than the average error of NHC forecasts. Most of the deterministic global models shifted slightly east this cycle, but ensemble guidance indicates both scenarios are still plausible. The NHC track and intensity forecast therefore is largely unchanged and continues to show Simon tracking farther north than it might realistically make it to emphasize that risk. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by late today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.2N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.6N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 105.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 18.6N 105.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 105.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 24.6N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

That is a short flight. Somebody made a really unnecessary mistake thinking that they could sneak into TLH. Edit - they went back to ATL. What a miserable experience that must be.