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The subplot of Tblizz vs George is what I'm here for. Not expecting a flake here. Too bad the euro is the coldest model again. I feel like it's been prone to that in recent years, even if it ends up as a compromise. JAM

Could be higher, but that’s a safe bet. If it goes full euro, then we might be 2-4”.

I was wondering where you were.

Interesting observation about the AIFS deterministic model by Tomer. ( for future reference ) Tomer Burg @burgwx 2h So far this case seems to be more of an AIFS Ensemble than an AIFS deterministic success (at least on the synoptic scale) - the AIFS quickly trended more amplified and now has a stronger and farther north cyclone than the deterministic ECMWF:

11" here on the south side of McHenry.

I think with the thermal fields aee closer to reality on euro, but the problem is you have to understand what it’s trying to show you in our area. In my professional opinion, it’s just a little too warm for a majority of this to fall as snow. Especially south and east of 95. I think we could flip at the end and that’s kind of what I’m hoping for. It also may briefly start as snow too.

And it isn't trolling if its true. Go look for yourself.

CTP hoists a Winter Storm Watch for the northeast portion of their area including @Voyager

Considering your response it must make yours too thanks for the love

im thinking 3-6 for me or did I for once go way too conservative Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Enjoy

Sne

What area?

I don’t disagree, the last 3-5 years have been dreadful and we’ve been on the wrong end of everything. No debate there. Last year particularly it was a lot of 33 rain. i also don’t expect the euro to be right. Even a 70/30 euro compromise isn’t snowing here.

29.8° -SN Picking up a bit…maybe 3/4sm at times? Pushing 1/4” maybe?

Jeffafafafa you looking at both storms? as the 0z and 12 Z runs didn't change your qpf much.

You’re “surprised” that the posting follows how it has been for years on this site? Does your incessant trolling make your day?

Very excited 2-3” IMBY seems reasonable

Ignore function working beautifully

I am thinking 1-2” for me before a mix/change to rain. Definitely going for the under with this event by me with the models setting up the rain/snow line across my area.

Brett, your area and especially up through Foxboro, Sharon, etc. has the best chance of getting closer to those clown amounts. But even that is gonna be high. You really will need to rip a hole through the atmosphere I think to get something that would wetbulb to 32 and get you those amounts. After three years of seeing -1 to -2 at 925 and nothing but cat paws to show for it. I feel like I’m on repeat here especially early in the season. We’ll see. i’m not being pessimistic trust me there’s no one who wants things to break right more than me, I just hate when people get all disappointed because they thought they were gonna get more than actuality because they bought some of those clown amounts. So yeah south and east of 95 I definitely would not believe those amounts.

Beautiful

Just noticed northern Litchfield County was watched. Add CT to the mix.

Funny how quiet it gets when King Euro and the EPS shows nothing in the long range to get excited about.