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A nice Marriott with hotel bar? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Maybe some high clouds by him.

40 here

Something must be wrong, east edge of Queens is between 32 and 36 degrees. How can you still be at 40?

Both nights in beautiful Piscataway, what could be better!?

29 in Syosset now after 45 for a high.

We actually talked about this a bit a few months ago with long term data- over the long term, a clear signal around the Front Range for more likely warmer year over year, but very inconsistent with overall moisture even though it does seem like every storm ends up drier than forecast, and there is a trend for warmer and drier Oct-Nov. A disproportionate number of the top 10 or so records that involve warm temps have been in the last 20 years, but other than being more variable, there aren't any real precip trends.

Would certainly fit the tenor of the last 6-7 seasons

Rather go to Evergrain.

Weird I'm at 34

I love troegs!!! It's also fun combining troegs and Hershey park Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

GFS maybe, GEFS not so much. SE ridge only really flexes around December 2-4 before the cold air starts pushing east. Definitely something to watch but I'm not too concerned right now.

You chilled nicely. Im still at 40

It’s a main feature of the pattern which has been stuck in place for the last 7 years with a brief relaxation during 20-21 and Jan 22. Very hostile Pacific pattern for snow in the I-95 corridor. Good patterns for snow produce classic KU benchmark storms which were in abundance from 2010 to 2018 with the much weaker Pacific Jet. Happened too many times for me to count from 2010 to 2018. Plus I started getting excited about the 20-21 winter during that October with my first successful use for the October MJO indicator for La Ninas. The most recent time was later in December 2021 after the highly amplified December MJO 6-7 stall that month which really pumped the Southeast ridge. But around the holidays the models started showing a legit MJO 8 for January 2022 which verified. So that was the last successful MJO 8 passage. We have had many model forecasts for phase 8 since then. But none have worked out due to interference from the WPAC warm pool. So I would like to see all the VP anomaly charts showing weakening forcing within week 1 near the Maritime Continent for the forecast to be believable.

troegs meet up party?

18z GFS/GEFS shows a legitimate fail mode for us, and one that I'm always concerned about happening. The trough dumps out west, flexes the southeast ridge, and we just torch while the central and western US score. Hope this is just a fluke.

29 now. 50 earlier

All I ask for Christmas is a six pack of mad elf, a 2am Namming as flakes fly outside, and a predawn elf enhanced walk in a snow globe Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Spectacular day for a trip up the Cog Railway to 4000 feet.

Is that Keanu Reeves?

The December to Remember vibes keep getting better! Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

The pattern progression was evident on the 12z EPS & GEFS today. By December 5th, a favorable pattern with winter storm chances should emerge if the advertised looks on the ensembles & weeklies come to fruition.

The models backed off of that next weekend storm idea for now. Let’s see if it shows back up or not.

Yeah median=middle