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And the rain keeps falling..we have to be over an inch in just the last few hours now

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks

Glad you all got a significant Rain.

0.19" by obs. Lt rn

Got a nice period of moderate rain here from that line too. Up to 1.35"

Neighbor rain gauge here had 2.2”. Very thankful for that. Went to Pikeville KY to watch daughter’s college soccer game. The leaves there & especially at 1000ft were clearly changing. Lots of red & yellows.

too much stellas it's Saturday night innit and my return cycle calculations showed a storm in the gulf around the 3rd week of sep anyways lad it's based off cycles innit

Trees going red here already.

Barry, I’m just giving a general idea of what might occur. Nobody can possibly answer your Q. That’s all on this for now. Keep watching but get a good night’s sleep. It’s very late your way.

what locations are gabby and the burrito on the map?

Trace hoping for some light showers overnight

Only the GFS. Up to 1.40” now

I have drizzle. It's amazing. 0.23" since August 20th with a good chance it stays under 0.25" through September 19th for a 30 day total. 22.48" on year Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

1.03" Hicksville

They imply this would be Gabby and possibly also Humberto afterward. Could be two storms not too far apart in time.

does the ensembles show that being gabby or burrito?

Here is the video Scooter mentioned (forgive me for still not knowing how to embed a Twitter link) https://x.com/tuckerweather/status/1964467995683762221?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA

I drove through some 1"+ stuff, that was fun. Only got .25 here at home but it looks like it's about to get wet again. What's left of the garden is happy.

It really should considering the pacific Inferno… That’s probably a complete response to that forcing in the climate models. … Frankly, I’m leaning towards some kind of an early loaded winter or quasi winter pattern … Something like November 15 through January 30 mid January at some point, but I don’t think it necessarily reloads midwinter on…

The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d be a bit concerned. As Barry earlier mentioned, this has strong support from the MJO. More about that soon:

Did no model have the extensive rain we are currently seeing? Some were better than others but nothing really had this blossoming on radar. Most models had the real rain tomorrow morning.

0.30" better than 0.

BTW 18Z GEFS shows a battle between Texas/LA and a burrito from the WCAR and another storm coming off Africa ("gabby")

check out GDM and the ensembles things will improve innit

What’s this stuff falling