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18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side

Merrill was shaking on that final play... I thought he may pull a Harry K and die what he loved doing as well... https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1G9Z4nhipJ/

GFS with a tropical threat. Patterns sort of supports it with cutoff low near the SE

its ya but run after run has been trying.. only a week out at this point.. some AI models also have it.. perfect track at 18z just need it stronger

Really got shafted on that round of rain. It rained all afternoon to my north and west by a few miles. Then it kind of split and redeveloped just to my south and east. I got about 100 drops so far.

71 today. Was snotty in the sound with the east wind but my son caught his first fish. He’s now a fisherman for life

Usually when it’s the GFS versus everyone else, the GFS loses. .

we tropical next weekend?

GFS vs everything else?

Just recently moved here for a new job fresh out of graduate school. Anyone got recommendations of things to do for someone that is new to the area. Thanks!

18z GFS not backing down

Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast…

There’s no need for a thread quite yet imo. It does look like conditions are becoming more favorable in the western Atlantic. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend toward the leading wave and central Atlantic area continues to move toward development.

Now forecast to briefly become a major. While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.

Watch us have a week of clouds with only a few winners in the rainfall department. This set up seems rather hit or miss. Would really like one day that's a regionwide soaker.

Dendy???

You should have taken Wes to dinner.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for North Texas (including DFW) until 10pm.

Yes I started last Sunday. Doing a combo of clover and grass seed in the brown areas. Clover is coming up already.

We need rain. Less than .50 for the month and it's been in the mid to upper 80s the last week

With the upcoming weather pattern, wondering if the conditions are favorable yet for overseeding. Have you started? Currently soil temperatures in the top 0 to 10 cm are averaging 70 degrees Fahrenheit I read optimal temperatures for fescue germination is between 50 and 65° f. Long range silly guidance on the AccuWeather app shows the end of October with the first freeze of the fall, I am not sure. I believe that although the weather has been known to make dramatic, turns near Halloween

Severe thunderstorm warning forMcHenry and Lake Counties. Been a long time since one was issued in the area.

BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV) which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70 kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However, the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has become a hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

The Eagles won one for Bernie today.

Enjoy