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Every model but the GFS and NAM are starting to look really solid for Ne GA and the upstate. I'd still take the GFS solution too but it's way too close for comfort.

If these numbers are close this would be a huge hit for everyone. 15to 1 in Central NC, 25 to 1 in SWVA and NWNC

I will be able to smell the snow, lol

Been watching that … don’t know how to beef it up

We disregard the UKMet model here too.

With this most recent storm, Columbus has now recorded more snow through today's date than every winter since 1996, except for 2014! We literally may never see another winter like this in our lifetime. Note rankings below are for the airport site only.

Under 7 days away

Watertown has been getting destroyed all frackin DAY! Check out different times on the vid! Man that LES fell HARD at times!

Gefs better

UK, last global insisting on a virtual miss, throws in the towel. Beautiful .

Gefs snowier

It’s gonna cave after it’s one rebound imo. But I don’t know if it’s time to bail yet. Gotta wait till the sampling is complete imo…then we move on if things don’t improve.

Germans - Pearl Harbor - Bluto

I’m giving it til 12z

The energy that eventually becomes our storm is still over far-northern Ontario, which I cant imagine is great for data collection. Remember the last system, how over time the northern stream sourced from the same region ended up stretching more and more as we got closer to the event? I wouldnt be surprised if we see that occur here as well. That should be over the northern U.S. around 12z Friday, so personally im going to give it until then, even if we should have more info by 00z Thursday night

yeah I recall 94 - we were about -10 to -15F in Staunton. We were driving to Baltimore - the entire drive the temp never got above 0. The Inner Harbor was frozen over completely

Very minor tick west on GEFS Snowmap but overall virtually unchanged from 12z

18z EPS SLP plots. Some good agreement on a track about 50 to 75 miles off HAT. Pretty good track for central and eastern NC.

I don’t even look at those. I just take the QPF number and multiply it by 15

Crazy uncle needs a straight jacket. That is some wild stuff that would set records. If it's going to be a complete miss, please let it verify. One for the ages.

The 18z ECM was the only model for the past several days to depict the weenie mid-level fronto band displaced very far northwest of the SLP that sometimes materializes in these wrapped up ULLs. The 18z run really wrings it out in western SNE - would probably be 10" of powder back to Springfield and Hartford on that depiction. But it even affects the NYC area for several hours. We need to see the ribbon of vorticity out ahead of the ULL punch further NW into Canada to allow the cutoff more room to curl up underneath. That allows the mid-level goods to retrograde further west. Odds are against us based on minimal support even amongst ensembles. But I'll be watching that key band of vorticity as we enter the hail mary range.

WHen we are this close now... having the furthest east model come in line with consensus is not an "improvement" if the consensus is a miss. That is simply guidance converging on the solution...but in this case that solution is a miss. When a full run of guidance is over...average everything together...and if the average of all the guidance (and you should weight it, the euro gets more weight than the GFS in this math) but if the mean of the whole suite of runs didn't move closer...it wasn't an improvement just because one or two of the worst solutions got marginally better.

Is the Ukie only using 10:1 ratios? Is that the way it works with all of these models when they spit out the snow numbers?

UK goes neutral at 66,negative tilt at 72.Big hit.