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We would need to sort out the pacific before the East Coast gets chances for big snowstorms. I dislike that +EPO a lot. It's more likely mid-late January will offer that -WPO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA combination.

I don’t think anyone, anywhere in SNE can be punting any snow prospects. Anything beyond Thursday is a pipe dream. I’m all set chasing fantasy snow

I thought we were entering the next ice age…

1/8-9 looks worse today because the ridge is further east now. Need that further west. I’d still watch both that system and 1/6 though. There’s still a signal for both on the ensembles even if it’s not as strong.

Yup. Running out of time to juice this up for more of the region.

Also there could be some OES enhancement with relatively warm sst in mid 40s and 800Mb temps around -12C.

I think you can’t just keep explaining multi year and moving on close to a decade as “bad luck”. There is definitely something more going on. Sure, it could Be partially bad luck, but the overall atmospheric picture is obviously one that has made certain snow analogs hostile for this area. At some point, you can’t just bury your head in the sand and have to objectively analyze what’s happening.

Yes Cape and extreme SEMA, DE Maine will see the highest totals, Congrats Eastport as this is a late bloomer in the GOM.

by then the coast will be further inland

From the look of the radar, I’m going to get in on that band for a little at least. .

going back in all the data I collected and plotted season totals, you can definitely see a cyclical pattern to the goods, we had a good stretch that peaked in 36, another that peaked in 56, again in 96, there are a couple stragglers in or outliers, put a definite trendline emerges... that said I believe we've bottomed out and will turn the corner eventually and get back to the goods, law of averages given a long enough time line

I believe I measured between 9 and 10” from that event. It just kept snowing. One of my favorite events I can remember. .

Yeah. Looks like cape and Se Mass is the place for some possible enhancement as it develops offshore. I wouldn’t expect more than a C-1 outside of that area

That would be nice. Little jolt into SE Mass and the cape

Real seeds and stems weather

As I recall, that wasn’t an entirely lake effect event, that was lake streamers on the back end of a synoptic event that would have otherwise busted badly.

I'd rather this evaporate. It's likely to ruin something better

It won’t.

They got Times Square cleared out in no time! Real effort on part of city

Horse hockey! EDIT: that translates to bullshit for those under 50

12z RGEM

Roughly 3" total from everything yesterday through this morning here. I was a little surprised by the last second (ish) Geauga warning yesterday, but thought the totals by this morning in the higher terrain/upslope areas would still be a little better than they are. Would agree with NEOH that strong winds were the main issue, as once winds turned WNW the organized banding did not last long closer to the lake. Driving across Cuyahoga County in the 9-10 PM timeframe, there was actually a fair bit of graupel mixing in (it was dendrites at my house in northern Summit when better returns moved overhead). PBZ managed to pull a 10" total out of Jefferson County OH (!!) from a band of moisture from Lake MI that began upsloping near MFD and then was persistent from there points ESE to a little south of downtown Pittsburgh overnight into this morning, so I guess you had to go reallllly far inland to get the good snow with this much wind. It does look like parts of Portage/Trumbull/southern Ashtabula into Crawford PA got 3-5" type amounts overnight into this morning closer to NE OH. It seems like the remaining LES with this first portion of the event is going to be mainly light...it is still relatively fluffy so if there's any increase in organization as the winds shift more westerly and fetch increases through this afternoon/evening it's possible someone gets another 2 or 3", but I don't think it'll be that exciting overall. A pretty prolonged WSW flow locks in tonight through most of Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next clipper. The LES parameters aren't extreme at all in this timeframe, but by the time you get to ERI the forecast soundings are half decent with instability and lift getting into the bottom half of the DGZ, with deep moisture above that. This should be a window where the lakeshore areas between Lake County OH and Erie County PA can actually get some decent snow, though I am a little skeptical about our LES Warning for Lake County to be honest...just am concerned the snow won't be that heavy that far west based off of forecast soundings being pretty meh around Cleveland until later Wednesday afternoon. However, that is the type of flow that should theoretically produce near the lakeshore. Winds come around NW to even NNW quickly Wednesday evening as a cold front moves through. There should be a period of mainly light synoptic snow just ahead of the front and a burst of snow along the front itself, which will be enhanced by the lake. The lake enhanced burst of snow along the front should be intense, but the fetch goes short quickly and forecast soundings quickly suggest much drier air moving in Wednesday night...so while I'm sure there will be some disorganized LES Wednesday night into early Thursday, it may not add much more. So I think everyone gets more snow Wednesday afternoon and evening with the clipper/front, but the LES may not add much (outside of the lakeshore where they have a longer opportunity tonight through Wednesday afternoon). Still wintry, but it wouldn't surprise me if the currently advertised totals are a little hard to hit. I'll be out of town from tomorrow morning until some point later Friday, so I will miss out on whatever makes it down here tomorrow evening.

You KNOW he's writing a multi paragraph explanation as we discuss

Interesting, ole DB would have been my first guess. lol - Statements like that make me question his credentials