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Had lawn seats last night for a show at Jiffy Lube. Got absolutely drenched to the core

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

Just went over an inch here. I am really surprised. With the .27 I got before the reset at midnight this is a pretty good system. Just got some thunder.

Yeah. Not sure how much time I’ll be spending up there long term, but so far it’s been a few days a month. Incredibly beautiful up there. It’s a whole different world with the small town vibe and much colder climo. I definitely don’t want snow late April though lol.

what a bust

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern

You have been cleaning up on me over the past several events - .27" of rain fell at home. To your point about hearing it coming down, .2" of my total fell in 11 minutes from 1:35am through 1:46am. You must have gotten in on an additional band that missed me.

WPAC inactivity is absolutely absurd

never trust a deamplifying system running into dry air

Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see. CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.

evil, evil tree

It all went to Virginia.

Yeah, still too early to know if it’s just a default or the models are onto something.

That’s one of the reasons I’m less sure of a total dreg outcome right now than I was heading into our last cold neutral/weak Nina/ horrific PDO winters, but keep in mind 2014 was the most extreme outcome of all similar analogs. Even if we got another 2014 “type” winter it would be extremely unlikely to result in that much snow. That was an anomaly. Also, we’re not arriving at the warm pool through the same larger scale mechanism this time as @Bob Chill pointed out and that matters. SSTs can be just as much an effect as a cause.

Do any of you guys have experience/tips with the wxprediction.com subseasonal forecast contest?

So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.

Top 10 driest September to September period for many stations in the Northeast.

The whole hemisphere…that’s really where it gets crazy.

That is the trend which is independent of the different regimes. It could be why the seasonal models are defaulting to it. I am not really interested in what the seasonal models are showing this early.

In Camp Hill I've had 0.73" in 58 days. Significantly less than the airport which is close to 4" or above. Since 1888 the records two months lowest preceiptitation total for Harrisburg official station was 0.88" during June and July in the insanely hot summer of 1966 where in those two months we hit 90 or above 40 times and 100 or above 7 times. The current drought, although not significant for the wider region this has certainly been significant locally due to it continuing and amplifying the trend of missing everything pop up starting in June. Further for the drought happening with below normal temperature in August. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough? I think they are wrong on that.

Thunder

1.24" of much needed rain down here around Fredericksburg with a mist fest ongoing. 59/57

The blended model ensemble mean is defaulting to the full trend diagram.

We have become a region of moisture farmers... just like Uncle Owen and Aunt Beru back on Tatooine