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Neither gardens in September nor car batteries in January believe the cold is fake. And the transpirationally boosted dews feel tropical even when the open hilltops are more pleasant. Citing "fake" as pejorative is a bit silly. 17° this morning, ice on the washtub 3/8" thick. Time to swap it with the snow scoop for the under-porch spot.

Chicken or egg. Society is an effect of human nature as much as it is a cause.

Nino Nov 1-15 avg 10 mb/60N mean zonal wind (m/s) 26: projected +2 09: +15 04: +16 58: +17 06: +18 68: +18 77: +19 79: +20 76: +20 14: +21 72: +23 51: +23 87: +24 94: +26 57: +26 65: +27 63: +27 18: +28 91: +28 69: +29 15: +30 02: +30 86: +30 82: +30 23: +32 53: +32 97: +34 Avg: +25

Ridgey look through Day 10 Nov 5/6

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (2023) NYC: 83 (1919) LGA: 82 (2023) JFK: 81 (2023) Lows: EWR: 25 (1936) NYC: 29 (1976) LGA: 33 (1976) JFK: 30 (1976) Historical: 1846: In the spring of 1846, a group of nearly 90 emigrants left Springfield, Illinois, and headed west to California. The Donner party arrived at the Great Salt Lake and still needed to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains late in the season. On this day, a heavy snowfall blocked the pass, thus trapping the emigrants. Only 45 of the original 89 emigrants reached California the following year. 1846: A group of inexperienced travelers was caught unaware by a major storm which dumped 5 feet of snow on Donner Pass in California. Their wagons and cattle were trapped along with them and only 45 of the 79 people in the party survived the winter. The group came to be known as the Donner Party, a part of western folklore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1919: 87° Maximum late season record in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) Record highs were up and down the East Coast including: Lynchburg, VA: 88°, Baltimore, MD: 87°, Richmond, VA: 87°, Washington, DC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 86°, Greensboro, NC: 86°, Raleigh, NC: 86°, Savannah, GA: 86°, Norfolk, VA: 86°, Roanoke, VA: 86°, Huntington, WV: 85°, Wilmington, NC: 85°, Atlanta, GA: 84°, Wilmington, DE: 83°, New York (Central Park), NY: 83°, Hartford, CT: 81°, Boston, MA: 81°, Milton, MA: 81°, Asheville, NC: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79°, Worcester, MA: 76°, Avoca, PA: 75° and Williamsport, PA: 75°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel) 1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1973: Several inches of snow fell in the Georgia Mountains. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: 2.4 inches of snow at Yakima, WA was enough to tie the record for most ever snowfall in the entire month of October. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

55 / 34 the nice stretch continues on - partly sunny dry and low - mid 60s back to or near 70 Thursday and then a very warm Friday with low - mid 70s. The weekend remains dry but drop back into the 60s Sat / Sun and then overall warm start to the nov through the 5/6th beyond there looks a bit unsettled with trough into the west and systems coming across and up to/through or west.

Gorgeous day today. Mid 70’s and full sun

January it was in 2016….unless you’re talking ‘83? Ya that was February.

Another DY4-8 SPC Outlook at 2130z starting 11/16 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

@weatherwiz and @ineedsnow all excited? DY4-8 SPC outlook will be update 2x a day soon! https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

Yes they can, but we have yet to see and epic E Coast snow winter overall w/ such strong El Nino. I am talking the NEUS. Mid-Atlantic one Miller A and they get double the normal snowfall! The cold in place prior to the Feb blockbuster was solid. So it can happen, just don't expect a long persevere snowfall like @CoastalWx wants!

October 28 1960: A 29-day dry stretch in west central Minnesota ends. For Wednesday, October 28, 2026 1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel) 1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 28 Wed National Chocolate Day 28 Wed National Immigrants Day 28 Wed International Animation Day 28 Wed world judo day 28 Wed National First Responders Day 28 Wed Chucks-N-Pearls Day 28 Wed Plush Animal Lover's Day 28 Wed Wild Foods Day

A general 0.50" around the TH area yesterday. More on the way later today.

Bottom line….big things can happen in a super Nino too. 2016 had a 3 footer in the mid Atlantic, and also a record breaking cold snap on Valentine’s Day weekend. Overall the winter wasn’t good for most. But if I can get a 30-36” blizzard…and a record breaking cold snap…sign me up.

Throwback to Melissa's intense eye

The lack of meaningful cold air / snowcover globally thus far, and even what's projected heading into early November, is not exactly a great signal for a sustained winter pattern any time soon. That being said, things can certainly flip on a dime, and that doesn't preclude intermittent cold shots or even snowfall opportunities. BTW, the SSWE / Polar Vortex hype every season by certain mets is becoming some real shit.

For all you weirdos who want a rainy, dreary fall, the 06z GFS is for you.

I don't blame you for that change, and frankly my argument doesn't rely on the notion that people are good. I wish they were, but there are more than enough counterexamples to make it an unrealistic claim. My argument is a one which places the onus of our behavior onto the competitive and exploitative mode of production society operates under. No wonder people are nasty when we are told that other people succeeding is to our disadvantage, or that more people means less to go around. It creates the interactions motivated by hate you talk of. So yes, I think its a valid claim to say that there are people who want to hurt others and are what we can categorize as morally wrong people. However, I think it's fine to add a consonant claim which emphasizes that behavior is a product of the greater system society has setup. We are all adaptive to the environment were in, and it happens our environment is one which favors hate over care. My real claim, and goal, is arguing that our system doesn't need to be that way and there are alternatives. I know that such a change is one which I won't even see the start of, but I also believe its folly to think capitalism will somehow exist for all time forever into the future. I think our situation is analogous to asking a peasant in 13th century Europe if feudalism will last forever. To them it may seem so, but that is because they are blinded by their historical moment. As for how this translates to day-to-day interactions I'm not really sure. Extend empathy towards others, but if they're "bad" people then they also deserve to be called out on their behavior. Honestly, what would your advice be to someone who was in your place 30 years ago?

One period in one month does not make a winter. You'll see ppl just focus on those select periods they got right, when what matters is the overall avg for the entire winter! "97-98 had a November winter event." Ok....many Novs do, your point? Dec 23, 1997 there was a surprise 1-2 footer in SNE. A winter event. Did that change anything in the mean for temp in the CONUS overall that winter? No. I had 42,6" that winter in Woburn. That's 15" below avg. I did have 6.4" in Nov which is above avg. But again, slicing and ice down short periods is cherry-picking. For Woburn,for the 4 very strong El Nino prior, one was close to avg snowfall (1982-83), and the other three below. That does not make a "big" winter in the @CoastalWx context!