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Exactly what happened lol. Was wearing bball shoes, too, though I could use an upgrade. I typically just play outdoors to avoid the indoor gyms/injuries and other bs. I really should be adding biking into the mix again…generally easier on my body than hoops.

Yes and until 85% of the low oressures stop going up into the lakes then a true hot pattern won’t set up

Yeah, I realize that. Canada has been a hotbed for tropical/PT cyclones recently, wouldn't bet against it. Though it's extremely early...not sure their historical data for earliest strikes but it's probably easily researched.

Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then.

I was referring to the 5-11 90+ degree days. Might have the 5 by the end of next week.

I think your guess is correct, looks like a volumetric percentage

I’m not sure that’ll ever be possible around here… In other news, our friends in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on the potential (post)tropical strike the Euro has this weekend.

Eh. Still early. I’m in the hot camp, but our usual dewy heat. I have so many saved maps of even more exotic heat than this over the last 5 years and none have come to fruition.

the same 850 temp is going to have a higher anomaly to our north

Tomorrow and Friday will be very warm days with temperatures rising into the middle and upper 80s. Some hot spots could reach or exceed 90°. A thundershower is possible on Friday as a cold front crosses the region. A pleasnt weekend will follow. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of teh summer. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -6.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.953 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (3.2° above normal).

EPS 5-day 850 temp anomalies has bulk of extreme heat NW of us into Ontario Canada FWIW. Eventually drops S into Ohio valley area later

That's a very cool site? Can you explain the units for soil moisture? My guess is cubic meter of water per cubic meter of soil but it's not clear from the graph. Does it take into account the density of the soil type or is it just purely a volumetric measurement? How do they track that in real time?

No thanks

79 in Palmyra.

Wish we could get 60 days in a row over 90

still a few days to go though

A long long extended hot summer is about to settle in . Get after it folks

Already here

hrrr continues to sell timing keeping most of the metro in the game tomorrow

I always chalked it up to God or nature being able to “water” much better than man can. Your 10-15 mins of water is nothing compared to a 10 minute downpour simply because you are watering a patch of grass but all the plants alongside that patch are pulling water from the soil with their roots

Clouds finally clearing out here, 68/61. doubt we hit our forecasted high of 87 but we’ll see what happens.

This isn’t going to age very well looking at the long term.

I'm actually getting a little bit concerned that this may be our turn with the dreaded synergistic heat wave phenomenon, which has been identified as a specific event type, showing up in attribution studies, that transcends the seasonal heat wave phenotype. The problem with these types of events ... the results exceed the technology's ability to appropriately project the scale and magnitude of them. That's the synergistic aspect ... in that emergence properties of the heat wave synoptics then 2ndarily interact/feedback to become 'more than than the sum of the parts'. Not suggesting Pacific NW 2021 June is walking through the door. We're not capable of 112 F at Logan given to physical limitations... but, what they lacked up there, we won't: access to DP. Anyway, as is this is an usually looking set up - certainly hinted to be that way. One aspect that's holding me down from hoisting that flag is that I'm not seeing a very convincing SW heat release/expulsion ejecting down stream. Some of the original guidance ideas regarding this thing did signal that a week ago, but as of now...it's mostly just a whopper synoptic scaffolding. But this latter stuff was telecon flagged 2 weeks ago, by the way ...and it's been a class room in synptic Met watching the ensembles emerge the spatial metrics in concert. When we do that in the winter, we tend to produce massive winter events.

12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 83.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.06.2024 0 28.0N 83.0W 1011 23 0000UTC 13.06.2024 12 29.4N 79.3W 1008 37 1200UTC 13.06.2024 24 30.9N 77.4W 1005 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 36 31.5N 76.6W 1004 38 1200UTC 14.06.2024 48 33.3N 75.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 15.06.2024 60 35.6N 72.4W 995 42 1200UTC 15.06.2024 72 39.1N 68.2W 990 51 0000UTC 16.06.2024 84 43.7N 62.3W 983 49 1200UTC 16.06.2024 96 48.2N 55.8W 986 45 0000UTC 17.06.2024 108 54.2N 52.3W 986 41 1200UTC 17.06.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL