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Nothing is a permanent issue. Will seems to think there will be plenty of shortwaves careening through in this flow…just whether or not we are on the right side of things.

I think the January thaw can be overly used sometimes, almost in almanac-y fashion. Even the best winters had their patented patterns relax a time or two; granted, I get how a transition into pause can be unsettling. Apart from present timing, I'm not bummed about a reload due to its necessity. If the warm spell is overhyped, I could see most monthly temps verifying close to average, maybe a little above average for west/middle TN. Also, I agree with the idea we'll flip cold at some point in January. May not be seasonal climax level but perhaps the start of a stairstep into glory. I know for me, times like these latch my hopes to analogs. For instance, if you like second half loaded winters, our latitude is a place to be as we've seen plenty of them the past decade (I.e. 2014-15 and 2020-21). Those examples saw some gnashing of teeth in the first half before things went gangbusters in the second. Not to suggest this winter is like anything like what we've seen the past decade. Certainly, this year feels unique already withour closest saving grace being on the Atlantic side, not the Pacific. Go back and review past winter threads and you'll see how PNA/WPO/EPO were highly discussed along with the MJO. Whatever transpires in the short term, let the record show I don't ask for much but amplification, volatility, and any west-based retrograding on those strat/Atlantic teleconnections. Winters with trackable systems within multi-week ebb and flows are my favorite.

I feel like this pattern is similar to recent years where we can't get the -PNA to eject s/w's at us...instead we get huge cutoffs in the desert SW and by the time they ever migrate towards us they just get shredded because of how zonal the flow is over the eastern US. Idk, I'm probably talking out of my arse but that's what I see. Nothing is ever able to amplify and it's starting to feel like a permanent issue.

Except there’s shit at the end of it instead of gold

GFS and CMC Extended are a carbon copy of the Euro Ext(weekles), maybe even a little better. Nice to see that the pattern progression heading into mid Jan is in agreement among the big 3.

Most will probably be gone but maybe we get lucky.. still a good amount otg

So, snow squall warnings have been in effect since 2023. I don't recall any issued for 20 miles around NYC. I would hate to see any issued for this particular area. While we have seen squalls laying a quick coating, I would be bold enough to say it would be nothing like what the warning was intended for, for severe squalls coming off the lakes. However, it seems these things are relative. To me, an actual snow squall creates true whiteout conditions, where you can't see 10 car lengths ahead of you, and/or snows a few inches in a matter of minutes. NYC immediate metro will probably never see one of these. The ferocity almost always wanes as it passes the Appalachians and then the Watchungs. Areas like White Plains or NW Jersey may have seen something like that. Peopel will rationalize, "well if it warns people of an impending light squall, people will be better prepared and perhaps avoid traveling at that time", then it is okay to issue the warning, no matter how minimal it is. I just don't want to see it issued here. Most of us have never experienced TRUE whiteout conditions. I couldn't imagine not being able to see my hand outstretched in front of me because of snow. - Crochety Old Fart -

Possible freezing fog tonight....big fan of that stuff! Winds Fri/Sat... 39F

Well there was the boston snow mountain 2015 melted in July. Outside our region but still amazing. The "South Boston Snow Farm" refers to temporary piles of cleared snow from Boston's record-breaking winter of 2015, dumped in a South Boston lot, creating a massive, slow-melting mountain of snow

As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look.

AO and NAO on the eps

it actually looks like a ridge lol

I just meant next week…7-8 days from now.

Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol

we dont need to be in the blue. We can survive +1 or +2......we just cant be orange or red(temp wise)

Looks promising!!!

Probably not any more broken then any other model lol

Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be colder. Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good...

I expect anything beyond D6 to jump a decent amount in terms of shortwaves. That’s often the case anyway but especially going to happen in this type of flow. Longer range is kind of a clown show right now. I wouldn’t want to forecast what early January is going to look like right now.

How unusual is this? I dont recalling seeing a 500mb pattern like this often. When are we icebox ever the same time Alaska is?

The 18z GFS appears to have lost most of its feedback with BN heights coming over the pole at to crash into the eastern ridge. The NAO bout to be tested this run. Let’s see where it goes. Just looking for consistent trends at this point and not random solutions. -only minor feedback on the West Coast this run. So far... -at 300, that is a big time trough in bound...and a monster NAO

as @CAPEalways says...forget the color and follow the dang lines

well the same weeklies kept it cold through Christmas into New Years until it didnt. I think Bam is going to bust and then call it win when we salvage 10% of January lol

I declare today a national day of mourning, “Pack Obliteration Day.” Repeat after me: ‘together our packs are stronger than stone, as we shovel our steps and uncover our homes, in unison let our voices say - Mother Nature, dammit, give us more snow! Before our packs grow sad, forever alone.’