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2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
July 2026 PDO: -2.03 -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
To be fair, the ONI is actually being punished here because of how fast the W Pacific has been warming. So for the purposes of trying to determine the extent of suppressed convection in the MC/W Pac and enhanced convection near the dateline into the E pac, RONI seems to be useful here -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
But why are they subtracting so much for the RONI deduction? It was only 0.44 for June ONI minus RONI. A sudden sharp increase from 0.44 to 0.8 is inconsistent with the size of month to month changes of the difference in the past. -
Haven't added water to the pool once this year, can't remember when the last time that was. Heavy pockets of rain pushing me closer to 3.5" now.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
OSUmetstud replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Roundy mentioned some issues with this method that sort of make sense to me. Im paraphrasing of course but its like youre punishing the el nino thats partially responsible for the increase of SSTs in the 20S-N band in the first place. There may be better ways to normalize the agw signal in the calculation. -
The drought talk is absurd
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Up to 0.87" here for the day
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
SouthCoastMA replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Sandwich getting steined fast and hard today I'm in Fall River and its pouring -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Everyone around you half inch or more. -
Chris, Just arrived at our shop, Davis shows 4.28" (so far today)
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You had more rain than southern nassau
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I’m Gronking -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
OSUmetstud replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The main difference is that NOAAs RONI reduction is larger. The raw weekly anomaly is 2.3. They subtracted 0.8. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Brian5671 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
moderate to heavy rain here-feels very tropical -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Snowedin replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Dumpage! My dingie is ready for action -
Heavy line of storms just formed right over my area and heading north east. It might have dropped another 1”.
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I'm not sure why people question the drought. The drought monitor maps have shown that much of the area has been in a moderate ro severe drought the last couple years. I know because I've had to water the vegetable garden so much the last 2 seasons with the very dry ground. Thankfully things turned around in July and it continues now at the start of August. El Nino to the rescue it appears.
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Outside clouds and some thunderstorm / debris clours Thu - Tue 8/6 - 8/12 looks like return of some sustained 90s in the warmer areas even the city.
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Wow. I had to water the garden constantly before July due to the super dry pattern -- we were in a severe drought for awhile. Thankfully it turned around in July. Now a good start in August -- glad to get 1.32" so far today.
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Hopefully all this rain means a great fall foliage season. The last few have been rotten because of severe niña induced summer droughts.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Cyclone-68 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
It’s almost time for the Cape to have their annual EF1 -
It sounds like you would enjoy the climate out West which averages under 25” a year of precipitation. Just had some friends get back from San Diego and they really loved it out there. We got close to that here back in the 1960s for a time.
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like a lakes cutter and warm sw flow - clearing out now
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1.32" here so far. Glad to get a good soaking after my area missed out last week.
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This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions
