All Activity

I like the aggressiveness, 11.7 Schaumburg would mean a big win for Downers Grove, bring it. 11.7 48 hours ago would have been a big stretch but here we are with a decent chance of hitting that number.

Yea, you want latitude with a primary warming H925.....elevation doesn't do as much too mitigate that.

Naked snow angels here

The 12z is the 4th cycle in a row that the CMC has shifted south with the vortmax... it had been up in Ohio/Great Lakes more like the GFS. The two models show important differences at day 4 with the 6z ECM kind of a compromise.

Not seeing any frozen for the city and coast. Classic interior event, and even they may change to rain. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Guidance blend would work pretty well for your area down to mine and Kevin's area. But you have an advantage with the latitude.

Oh hey…this is where all my Great Lakes people are at? I’ve been over on WXSphere for the last few years but it’s mostly OV people! Looking forward to this one to start the season.

Nail biter here.

And even if the shortwave is weaker, like the 12z Canadian, it’s still not enough here because the whole thing is kind of weak sauce. Canadian would make Kevin to Ray happy

You're prob in a good spot...GFS only needs to be overamped by a very small margin for you to get a warning event.

Mentioned this yesterday and I haven't wavered on this forecast yet. I feel any wintry precip in the region will be confined northwest of the fall line. The key is the timing of the HP movement to the east and the the low attack. A few days ago, we had a little more stay in the HP to the north which would offset some of the warm advection from prevailing southeast flow and provide a deeper wedge to break through. Now the high is shifting east and in a classic spot for a positive u-vector wind anomaly to take shape earlier, eroding CAD prior to approach of the main precip field. Magnitude of cold is subjective, so it's plausible the wedge is deeper than advertised from the preceding pattern, or the low isn't as robust and doesn't have the stronger boundary layer WAA regime materialize making it easier for the cold to remain. The fact stands that the current forecast would yield little wintry precip for the lowlands and is shaping to be a classic elevation/longitudinal type pattern for the area. Further north and west, the better the chance. EC AIFS and AIFS-ENS are still in pretty good agreement on some low-end threat for snow/sleet prior to the setup yielding all rain for the area. Would need a massive shift in the HP to the north about 200-350 miles further west as @WEATHER53 alluded to in a recent post. Still super early in the season, so it's just nice to have something trackable at this point instead of watching temps in the 50s and 60s and swatting mosquitos into December.

The difference is crazy. It’s just entirely less dynamic too. I’d did tick colder, but still not enough here.

I’m not saying it’s right, but I’m saying it sort of has been leading the way with getting something up here. Maybe it’s a little amped, but it’s not a crazy idea to have something like that. That high was offshore and you have all the srly flow and warm advection ahead of it. Nothing really to stop it from being so tucked in unless the short wave comes in much weaker.

Given it’s relative consistency, I would say a compromise is an order, but with an edge towards the GFS

Maybe I need a visual, however, why are the trade winds distributing specifically to the WPAC? Also does that mean the EPAC will remain generally cooler than average due to upwelling?

Yea, I didn't say it's physically implausible, but probably overboard.

We didn’t get 93, but we got 89. https://www.wmur.com/article/interstate-89-northbound-new-hampshire-closed-112825/69576055

AIFS ensembles have also been performing well with the polar domain's 500mb patterns, and both it and EPS have been trending less positive with the AO in recent runs. Otoh, GEFS has been verifying better with the MJO. Something to watch for.

Correct. In fact, from what I can tell this might be the first double digit storm before January 1st since the second storm of the December 2016 sequence, if not 12/20/12. Which is insane to say the least.

Actual ends up like euro at 6z

Liking where I sit here with this one, granted it remains 96 hours out as of now. and with that, another winter in the trenches.

You could be right on this one. But I wouldn't be surprised if it backs off a little bit on the strength and how far north it's going. But as I prefaced earlier, it's not super common to see big snows here in Connecticut in the first week of December.

Looks great up there right now. Still time for a PF jackpot though

GEM is going to be SE of 00z....looks like the Euro. D4 model war.

at this point it looks like anyone south of the Pike is mostly wet, anyone north of RT 2 mostly white, probably better WoR folks holding on with ptype issues, but we'll see as we get into the weekend runs, Euro ens have a nice cluster, and then there's next Saturday possible refreshing some... still below 32 here with a stiff NW breeze, expect possible streamers today if I can catch one right.