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Last NAM "before" the event...

Cold, cold rain. 34.9F.

There were several examples in February, most notably one in mid Feb 1997 that was a 6-8" snowfall across Maryland in what was an otherwise god awful pac puke pattern. There were a couple examples in March also. Actually seems there was a pretty even distribution with one in November and a couple December events...January did have the most with 4. But a lot of those fringe season ones were a LONG time ago so... Here is an amazing stat....3 of the 88 5" snowstorms from 1948-2020 in Baltimore had every single index WRONG! Obviously 3/88 is a super minority but the fact is we even used to snow when EVERYTHING was wrong if we got lucky enough! Now Chuck is trying to convince us if one of 4 or 2 of 4 factors are bad...its game over, which lately it has been...but he also says we shouldn't think anything has changed. Below is the index breakdown of all of Baltimores warning snowfalls from 1948-2019 and you can see there are quite a few where 1 or even 2 of the indexes are hostile including plenty of hostile EPO/PNA patterns. Obviously there was MORE snow when everything was good...but it wasn't as radically necessary to have a perfect pattern historically as it has been lately where if one or two things go wrong the whole thing goes to hell in a hand basket fast! EPO/PNA/AO/NAO - - - - 16 + + - - 13 - + - - 11 + - - - 10 - - + + 9 + + + + 6 - + + + 3

Al rain here. And I finished drinking all the prep at 6 and … nothing.

Yes lol this was April 18th 2020

Don't get too excited, I'm under it and it's very light...at least for now.

I hope I'm wrong, but feels like we are on the slow rot to spring.

Nam better than 18z

Snow mixing in NW Cecil County 33.2

Big band Si into Brooklyn

33 with snow, pavement wet grass well there is none visible but looks to be accumulating on glacier and some walks

Radar looks to be ~25 dBZ, but only snowing lightly - guess we're still moistening the column, as it's down to 34F now.

The Sierras are about to get pounded.

Dust devils rely on hot surface temps…snow sfc temps are relatively cool because of the albedo. Since they’re often on mtns…I’m going to guess they start as a local swirl/vortice that strengthens as it slides down in elevation as it stretches vertically and tightens and speeds up like a figure skater.

Mixing all the way down to Baltimore Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

But in 989, it would have been 9”

Snow flakes now falling in Lebanon .

Rain here.

Haven't seen the ARPEGE mentioned here in a while since the Euro maps were made more freely available, lol.

We got a heavy shower the past hour to put us at .87

I read Jerimoth was 812. Either way it's a beautiful area sland I'd like to hike it some day.

Had one day this winter with multiple large ones at Stowe. Biggest I can ever remember. Wish I could post the video, but too big size. Here’s a screen grab… much easier to see the definition in the video but that’s like a 1,000ft tall vortex.

Thank you, that was very informative...and also incredibly depressing. Implies, as I feared, some of the pacific issues we are having are more than just "its cyclical and we will break out of it". Don't get me wrong there are moving parts here and some of it is cyclical, we most definitely are in a -PDO cycle which is making some of it worse...but the theory here seems to be a la nina base state in the north pacific is the result of longer term changes related to the elephant. I've heard it before, makes sense...and is depressing. I have some questions regarding arctic amplification and any possible benefits. I think it's possible that when things go good...they could go VERY good...hence years like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. But there is a statute of limitations to how far that effect can last in a warming base state. For example, we are seeing mid level ridges linking up with high latitude ridges more and more...at some point that will simply be the normal every time and the benefit of high latitude ridging will be negated once troughs are no longer forced to cut under and everything simply amplifies into huge full latitude ridges and troughs. That isn't good even when we get under the troughs since a full latitude trough is typically just cold and dry and trasient. That's why i scream when someone breaks out a 1993 analog from 15 days out because the pattern that produced 1993 superstorm can do that...but 99.9% of the time that kind of full latitude trough/ridge configuration is simply a cold front and a few days of cold dry. Sure we could see more super massive storms but most of the time we will just see more warm/wet cold dry winters....heavy on the warm...is my guess. Also... does arcic warming really help if the whole base state is warmer? It's not really the warmth in the arctic that helps us its the flow created by a ridge there and how it compresses the mid latitude flow under it. If it's simply warmer up top does that do the same thing to the same extent? EHH? I don't know I am asking. Just spit balling what some of the implications of what I read would be for us. I see some ways in which it could help...could...but I see a LOT of ways in which it is already tangibly hurting us so...not thrilling lol

In this huge system, look where it's snowing. Lucky us. lol Raining out in Williamsport and State College, PA.