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Aldie said it well…people are dumb

Thanksgiving and Black Friday continue to look cold after the front pushes through. We’re hosting about 15 family members at Deep Creek so looking forward to a cold holiday…hopefully some lake effect/upslope snow for the kids (and more importantly, me ).

We’ll have a torch spike on the cutter the first few days of December (whenever that thing actually cuts…still wiggle room on guidance)….but we may drop the hammer after that. Canada is frigid and we start getting that cold -WPO cross-polar press. It’s hard to stay warm with that look. I’d be surprised if we didn’t have multiple SWFE threats between 12/5-12/15. Might even be able to sneak something a touch sooner. Esp NNE.

Yes. I used a full progression through Phase 2 for fuller insight. I plan to take a closer look at the MJO cases.

50 / 48 drying out a bit and slowly clearing later. Warmer 11/22 - 11/26 then below 11/27 - 11/30 before moderating warmer to open next month. Appears a back and forth between the cold and warmth and in between at times.

It’s going to be a long, dark winter here. I have to get my shots in when I can.

Hopefully 70+ on 12/24

Also this is a vibeology thing more than a meteorology thing. A torchy 576dm ridge in the first week of December does not change the probability of a good pattern setting up at the end of December. The only reason this *would* be the case is if subseasonal and seasonal patterns were unfavorable which they won't be for Dec 2025.

Around here in the Champlain valley, Burlington, Waterbury, Stowe, etc. area, some houses have gutters, and some don't. Indeed, backedge is correct on the insulation - as long as you have a newer build house that was done with modern insulation standards, it's not an issue. Our house was built in '06 with gutters and we've had no issues for close to 20 years. And, it's not as if this area doesn't get a ton of snow. The snow just sits as a stack on our roof all winter, and gradually disappears, so there are never any icicles. The contractor who built our house commented on the level of insulation he put in the roof - I'm sure at a minimum it's to the R-60 local code, but he may have gone with more, since he commented on it. We have a truss roof, so it's not living space, so he could sort of go as thick as he wanted with the insulation. When he showed me the insulation up there in the attic space, it had to be at least a couple feet thick. I've mentioned it here in the form before, but as a kid, I always loved seeing the icicles on houses when we'd be driving around, but my dad would just grumble and say that means the house doesn't have enough insulation (he's a contractor of course). But that's the real deal - if you're getting icicles anywhere off the roof, it means there's not enough insulation there according to modern standards (at least around here in Northern Vermont, but I assume most cold climate areas would have updated their codes by this point as well).

The 12z CMC is trying to snow to the CA beaches again. That won't work out well for us. When we stop seeing strong ULLs over southern CA we will have a shot of wintry.

Yeah BOS can still do 70. Don’t see it this week though.

Can just sense the well drying up.

All the signs in the world point to this not being the case this winter

Some of the earliest reapings on record today

Man what a day. How’s it going down in SNE?

BOS has done 70 in Dec and Jan. It’s isn’t likely, but it’s not over yet.

I said loads of times, not every time.

Hopefully the MJO won’t turn sharply left along the 7/8 border like these: Dec of 2014 was mild: Dec-Jan 2019-20 was mild:

If there's any way the 12z ICON is on the right track at the end of its run, that would play out a lot better for early December than 0z/6z GFS/CMC/ECM... We'll see if the ICON is far off on its own or a harbinger of a 12z trend.

I did jump but I'd hardly call it a ledge at one or two inches high which, coincidentally, is the most snow anyone will see this winter.

A few of the same people that were hyping December just 48 hours ago are now crapping all over the winter.

Really interesting read about climate induced home insurance premium increases. no pay wall on the link. Coming to a neighborhood near you. https://x.com/senwhitehouse/status/1991874859115442441?s=12

Exactly. 70 Is certainly not happening.

All those times were cold decembers that changed to torches in january that persisted for the remainder of the season.