All Activity

Lot of spread on the 12z EPS for this one, Looks a bit SE too.

The least ai can do for us accurately depict a miller day at 5 day lead before it eventually enslaves us and turns us into batteries.

It sure has the basics you want to see. Ridge over the intermountain west, perhaps a tad too far east but noise at this stage of the game. A 50/50 low. A northern branch s/w digging through the Ohio Valley with an already slightly negative tilt. Agree, at this point I'll take it and let the chips fall where they may. This is 5-6 days out and very far from a done deal either of a hit of some kind or a total miss. Most that can be said at this point is "moderate to strong storm signal for later in the weekend".

One sign that warmer/sunnier days are coming is my cheap-o Ocean State Job Lot solar lights I have on my pool deck are waking up again

This phantom storm has March 2001 vibes

Oh I’m just referring to euro ai as a product lol, but good to know the ensembles haven’t turned into a fish storm yet.

GEPS looks better at 12z too.

If you say no most of the time you're gonna be correct most of the time

First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case

Good to see the EPS AIFS showing the growing storm potential. Not a bad signal from a day 5-6 AI ensemble. Let’s see this hold for another few days so we can pick up our first warning level event in a month.

Definitely a better chance than the last one. That was a whiff. So feeling more positive about this one

The euro ai is impressive to say the least. Neural networks ftw, though the black box, lack of interpretability of nn’s needs improvement.

No I would absolutely be cautious. I'm still cautious but let's be real here the euro just isn't a great model anymore. Euro ai is!

The GEPS showing similar trends to the AIFS ensemble, though today's 12z run is a bit more suppressed than the 0z as the trough turns negative tilt near the NE US coast.

They were but...lol...euro totally missed the 14" we got the evening before...and then still was about .5 qpf too low for the second part. It was a pretty epic fail of the euro at very short lead

If the set up successfully gets there, sure.

Not worried about the euro, it’s been getting slapped around by its ai cousin from this range all winter. I’m more just worried about the ai shifting this whole thing northeast as we get closer which of course could happen.

i think a MECS is totally possible, but would like to see the EPS jump on board soon

F DT. He occasionally gets one right but is often wrong.

you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?

Today has killed off all snow in my front yard and side garden. Even shoveled piles.

Might have to enjoy next week as the last week of winter. I think the Sunday event is mostly a coastal, either way - scrape or out-to-sea. Doesn't appear to have a lot of intrigue for our area. I can see one or two other snow chances. Nothing major yet. Incoming March pattern looks like straight-up pacific firehose of warmth for most of the CONUS. I'm more of a November and December snow guy, truthfully. March is often a wildcard, but if I had to choose, I'd take early season wins over late ones. Our bigger March snows seem to pop every five years on average. Next year would be five years since a healthier March snow total (17.1" in 2022). The pattern can always flip colder mid-or-late March, but by then you're asking a lot for true snow events.

MA forum starting to get concerned. apparently the GEFS suck

Lots of Tucked members off the coast.