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Nice thump at 117. Looks better

I think he’s talking about the Midwest event on Sunday

Yeah first system being the lakes storm which is in essence a glorified FROPA here. That system over the last 8-10 days has gone from a Midwest cutter to a solid Lakes cutter to a weak lakes low. This is what mostly led to the failed SER. That SER shown 10 days ago was a product of that assumed massive cutter.

it should at least hold from 6z

GFS looks to have a bit more confluence so may be a bit cooler

Can you please be more specific with the dates - the first storm is this weekends or next Tuesday ? When is the second storm ?

That's what I'm thinking... A little bit of both, which adds to the complexity! Fun times ahead... I just hope folks enjoy the action and don't get overly hung up and only MBY outcomes.

Any chance we can get that high to lock in a bit more? I feel like that aspect of this is fleeting, and that was our shot down here. 6z euro was probably closest to doing that.

I think that's a solid call

The first storm continuing to gradually become strung out and flatter is leading to the second one being more likely to be a hit. 2-3 days ago I felt the second system was a miss but not so much anymore. That said, keeping with the theme of recent years and given the flow, go weaker on that one too. I believe there is a decent chance for the 2nd storm to be snow to rain, even to the coast if everything times out correctly but if it’s too late and the high begins to slide offshore it won’t happen

Yeah I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say if the most amped solution verifies, metrowest to 495 would have a lot of trouble getting accumulating snow. But there’s a plethora of solutions that are colder as well and this is likely to oscillate some on guidance until we are a bit closer.

you still dont want any model being that warm/north

4-8/6-10" looks like a decent range for here. Pretty good agreement amongst the ensembles of a range of 0.60-0.80" total QPF. Not really worried about p-type, and if it changes to snizzle, it should be after 95% of the storm has done its damage. Regardless, need 4.6" to hit double digits for November, which is pretty freaking fantastic.

Gfs still on car topper alert for northern Maryland crew sunday morning.

It's either ots or heavy wet snow for the deep interior. I95 isnt in the cards at all since we don't have a ridge over the rockies.

Icon pretty much has the snow line cutting Orange County in half aka I-84

I have zero expectations here. 12/2 isn’t our game generally. Id say far interior, like out in western MA could do well if the modeling continues to look like this. I wouldn’t expect much inside of 495 if something like the ICON verifies

Weather model evaluation seems similar to machine learning on just about any dataset. Want to reduce variance and have a more generalized prediction (it'll probably snow, but not sure how much)? Random forest classifiers can help. Want to reduce bias and get more precise with potential overfitting (don't worry about downsloping, it's gonna snow 9.8")? Gradient boosting. Want a mixed bag, but high cost and a potential black box (it's gonna snow somewhere between 1 and 15"), go with ensembles that have a variety of algorithms. Judging by the median (which I'm assuming is the wise thing to look at lol), looks like the AIFS ensembles are leaning towards snow tv, which is still a win in early December.

Congrats. Next stop ACK?

Man.... You are the most pessimistic guy I know LOL. I'm not saying that this outcome is not a possibility, but it's also not the final outcome. I think we have a great chance of staying wintry even if it's not all snow, anywhere 84 North ..... I didn't realize how East you are and close to the cape. Yeah, I think you're cooked.

35.4 here. Even a few snow flakes floating around here.

Yeah, short term is the key phrase as those near to record SSTs extend down well below the surface which were recently enhanced by the record IOD.

Still gunning for Pit2- Jeff. I think that's still doable.

I agree 100% about the realistic possibility that the models have been slow to react to a more -AO/-NAO as potential effects of the current SSWE. Why? I have to look no further back than the 2/16/2023 major SSW. Even on the run of the day of the actual strat. reversal the GEFS was still clueless about the impending drop of the NAO late Feb into mid March: 2/16/23 (day of SSWE) GEFS NAO forecast through 3/2/23 was dead neutral (0) through 3/2/23: Actual daily NAOs: look how the GEFS run from the day of the SSWE was way too positive for Feb 26th-Mar 2nd! 2023 2 16 0.918 2023 2 17 1.051 2023 2 18 1.202 2023 2 19 1.122 2023 2 20 0.775 2023 2 21 0.480 2023 2 22 0.330 2023 2 23 0.157 2023 2 24 0.155 2023 2 25 0.047 2023 2 26 -0.301 2023 2 27 -0.742 2023 2 28 -0.748 2023 3 1 -0.956 2023 3 2 -1.006 2023 3 3 -1.093 2023 3 4 -1.161 2023 3 5 -1.109 2023 3 6 -1.132 2023 3 7 -1.187 2023 3 8 -1.091 2023 3 9 -0.614 2023 3 10 -0.356 2023 3 11 -0.293 2023 3 12 -0.254 The next day and the following days, the GEFS started catching on and had this just 4 days later (2/20/23), which was much closer to what actually happened: this was through Mar 6th: Similar trends happened with the AO. The moral of this real-life story? Stay tuned for more potential big NAO/AO drops for mid December! Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii @donsutherland1

EDIT: Just signed the contract. Wasn't expecting to be doing that this morning! Mattepoisett here we come.