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Yes, it’s a cold look, and there will be opportunities as Will said. We’ve had/seen way worse. So I’m willing to give the pattern some time mature, and see if we can capitalize on something.

Yeah, that SOI sauce be crazy. As some have mentioned, the devil is in the latency of effect, but to what gives us stronger amp, we should generally root for. On an unrelated note, where are our thoughts on the second half of winter? I got one more Bag Fry set to arrive on 12/17/25 so I'll be grounded from chasin' for 6 weeks (wife can't drive post c-section). Come Groundhog's Day, I'll be able to get back on the road and potentially bring my 10-year-old with me.

If the MJO stays in phase 8 as predicted, I’m going to keep selling on the SE ridge trying to appear. That said, the later we get into December the more ways we can snow with near normal temps.

Every year is patience. Expect cold an suppression

I do get the frustration ( and I used to get myself twisted when things kept being pushed out further and further ). I look at it this way, we're not in a bad pattern. It could be a lot worse. Things are going to happen the way they happen. We also know that things could just pop up out of nowhere as well. But I feel everyone's pain. I guess we're all a glutton for punishment..lol

2003? Pssh. We should be in despair that the whippersnappers don’t recall 1779. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/washingtons-encampment-morristown-new-jersey-and-hard-winter-1779-1780 .

Lol…well In Anthony’s post, he does say patience is what’s needed. But the MJO as we’ve been told is not a driver, as many were led to believe, but only an enhancer that constructively or destructively interferes.

Looks like the southern stream is going dormant again this week. Maybe we can weasel our way into a clipper/screamer/mauler later in the week with that next shot of arctic air.

Nice morning, not bad about an hour of total snow. Maybe a quarter inch but the last batch was very festive huge flakes.

How many posts of Mjo, JB, and Steve D will it take for you to realize it’s still bare there?

My comment regarding snowfall only goes through December 20th. I think if things grow more favorable for the East Coast, it would be during the December 20-31 period as things stand now. Things can still change beforehand, because teleconnections forecasts lose skill beyond 10-14 days.

I’m sick of that thing too…the MJO can go piss off.

Patience

Big storm at the end of this month . Patience is key.

Just like everything in meteorology, it seems that there’s always one thing that can trump something else, albeit only in very rare cases, and that seems to be happening with that clipper. I mentioned this a week or two ago, the NAO has not helped us much in the last few years. It either has suppressed systems(yesterdays Virginia snow), and now it’s letting a clipper cut to Ottawa…we can’t seem to win with these NAO blocks.

I think the pattern gets better as we head late in December for the east when the MJO gets stronger in phase 8.

Glad to see Central and Southern Va get on the board. From Newport News south and east got nothing. But expected. Right along the coast we had no chance. Still early for us given the warmer bays and ocean. Heck I was 44° in the morning when it was snowing at 28° in Yorktown. I can't complain about anything for the next several years given the two big events I had last year. Hopefully December continues to be busy. Congratulations to all...except Hampton Roads.

Central CT

Indeed, now we just need some snow to come along .

Beautiful morning. Woke up and saw trees dusted in snow again, was pretty surprised. A solid .2-.3 of new snow.

Lake Superior is still the 2nd warmest on record since 1995 for December 5th. https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/statistic/pdf/all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

Wasnt that the dual snow storm/“blizzard” that was very unblizzard like?

I meant to ask yesterday, why would it cut so far inland if there is a solid block? I thought a -NAO was supposed to stop these systems from cutting to the lakes.

Today's PNA value was -0.355 with five of the first six days of December seeing negative values. The forecast calls for a continuation of the negative PNA: Nevertheless, the WPO is forecast to dive to below -2.000 on the EPS and to -3.000 or below on the GEFS. As a result, a foundation is being laid for much of eastern North America to wind up colder to perhaps even much colder than normal during the December 11-20 period. This pattern would tend to focus the snows on the Great Lakes region while the East Coast sees lesser snows. PNA- setups typically favor lighter snows on the East Coast. The single exception during December since 1980 was the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. Such strongly negative WPO cases also see warmer than normal conditions in the Southwest.