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Having a closed surface circulation and its approximate location should give the TC models a better handle on environmental interaction. We'll have to see if there is RI potential prior to conditions becoming less favorable. I suppose there does exist the possibility of rapid intensification occurring, leading to some panic, only for it to rapidly weaken prior to landfall. It is an annoying forecast in that regard and subject to big changes quickly. It's tough to approximate exactly when strong mid-level shear will impede or disrupt a core, especially if the system intensifies faster than forecast. But no TC is going to be immune to 30+ kts of shear prior to landfall. Yet, before that shear escalates, the system will have very strong ventilation. Therefore, the ceiling is high through the first 72 hours. How close does the core get to the coast prior to shear obliterating it? Not like this would be the first time we've been psyched out by a hurricane in the GOM, of course.

Sorry for the loss, it's hard watching our parents get old and pass away. Once they do, it's a short trip til we get there too.

Pretty likely Lamar misses the Atlanta game. Even if its precautionary. Not a disaster if they lose, as there are 2 division games that follow as well as in-conference games after that. Losing to an NFC team with no Lamar and having him back a week later(healthy) is an easy tradeoff. And they could still win this week with a solid game plan in place for Snoop that is run heavy- if the OL can get it's shit together. Falcons are so explosive right now the way to beat them is to eat clock and score a few times, keep their offense off the field, and our mediocre defense too lol.

Now that we do have a well defined center and recon data that will be incorporated into the models, we should hopefully start to see gradual consensus on the eventual track and intensity. I'm still a touch skeptical, but far less so than yesterday given how much more compact this tends to be. These BoC systems can really produce. Just goes to show how even in an otherwise historically inactive season things can change quickly.

61 for a high. WBAL even mentioned Parkton as one of the coldest spots in the metro area this morning

We need to switch the pattern to have rain on weekdays and gorgeous fall weather on weekends

Warm season after +ENSO.. This is all El Nino minus all La Nina analogs since 1948 +8 months.. global warming has little to do with this. What a strong correlation (Summer 2027)!

fixed

^Yeah, nice post, I've been pointing out how the +AO has been following warm season 2024 and 2025, after the Solar Max. Your graph shows those 3 strong + periods. Summer 2018 too, that was followed by the most CONUS -PNA El Nino on record 18-19.

It's been a pleasant stretch of 60s-70s the past few weeks. This morning was definitely the coldest with 37 degrees otw to work. Looking towards winter, CLE did a great write up on last winter. Definitely was one of the better ones compared to the past 5 years or so. https://www.weather.gov/media/cle/Winter 2025-2026.pdf

Starting to wonder how much of that can be attributed to the AO which has been mainly positive for several months. Think that stubborn ridge that's been east of Japan has some relation to that at least.

We should see a steep dropoff in the 2030s. The leveling has been upheld by -H5 in the warm season pretty much every year since 2016 except for 2019. Two strong correlations that I wonder if they will change if the arctic ice starts melting exponentially again: -PDO CONUS precip July-Aug, substantially above normal since 2017.

That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).

We're gonna see some wild weather this winter and then next summer will be a disaster.

Very nice ice!

Yeah could be a prolific rain maker as it comes east. Direct moisture inflow from very hot gulf.

Almost every single Giants game this year has been played in the rain. This Sunday in DC should be no exception.

Weren’t the remnants of Ida pretty bad in the MA? She’s been, but we have a rule where birthday plans are nonnegotiable. I’ve hopped on flights around my birthday to leave her behind for chases. I guess the bill is coming due. Literally and figuratively.

TD 9 was designated by the NHC at 5:00 PM. Currently a high altitude G-IV mission is underway sampling along the Gulf Coast and SE. That new data should be ingested into the 00Z of dynamical models.

Introduce her to the thrill of hurricane force winds and sideways rains.

Yeah the feast or famine rain over the summer did not help. A lot of what has changed around Grandfather has quickly gone dull and falling off fast. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk