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There's very little support on any of the major ensembles for much snow through 10 days... or even 12 days. It looks relatively active with cold air not too far away, but the multi-guidance consensus suggests the progression and evolution of the longwave pattern is not locally favorable. Even the individual members are stingy with wintry outcomes for the moment. Early December is still highly trackable... and we know that ensemble members group too close to the parent model, so favorable changes are still possible especially out past 7 days.

You are correct - checkout the 12Z AI much different from the 6Z BUT some amature Mets on youtube will probably make a big deal out of the 6Z run

Thank you for the kind words. It’s good to see that we can each use different methods and converge on similar solutions. You do a fantastic job putting together your seasonal outlooks. It’s why this extended format discussion forum is such a valuable resource bringing us all together in the same spot.

At the game today. My god the offense looks like shit

Excellent post...mic drop-

Se Canada will be cold...they can cut all they want, it will have to snow at this latitude to advect the warmer air from the inland primary, and a triple point low will pop INVO cape cod as a byproduct of the initial resitance from the CAD.

Yeah, this is what I have been discussing. The rapid warming of the WPAC tropical SSTs near the near the Maritime Continent has been stalling the MJO in the warmer storm track and background temperature phases. So the MJO progression tends to linger longer in the 4-7 phases and spend less time in phase 8. This is why January 2022 was the last time that the RMM and VP anomaly charts were both solidly in Phase 8. From March 2022 through the winter of 2024-2025 the few MJO 8s per the RMM charts had lingering forcing in phase 5-7 regions. So we didn’t fully realize the MJO 8 pattern which we last had in January 2022. Many times the models try to rush the progression through phase 8 and it gets delayed and or weakened the closer in time we get to the forecast period. This is what is shown when we subtract the last 16 years from the previous 16 years. You can see the stronger forcing closer to phases 6-7 where the warmest SSTs on earth near +30C are found during the winter. This +28C +30C warm pool has been steadily expanding across that region.

Amazing job! Thanks guys .

yes, it's real. It's a long range forecast that's been somewhat consistent with the GFS and ECMWF the last couple of days, I think

Yeah clouds again hanging on and pushing in

I have a learned a ton from your material.

Honestly I wish it could be as simple as saying we are going into a phase 8 pattern thus it should look like this. The issue going on is we are still in a Nina like background state but we are getting intrusions of Nino like features popping up. I honestly never thought this setup would work out as well as it is. Lets see how things continue

I think you will. 12z models are showing a better press with the storms ahead.

I'll bet you $100 I have a plowable event of 3" or greater by the end of the second week of December (14th).

When the pattern comes together "I know the pieces fit"

Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week. Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain.

Torching here. Sunny and the temp has jumped to 59 after a morning low of 29. West wind gusting to 30.

So much for that mostly sunny forecast!

We'll all hands and sing Kumbya once a good snowstorm hits.

100% to be honest, I think that's going to happen to anyone who has been either on the fence on a pattern change or just negative about seeing any snow. It's funny how a good snow event for the majority of the area brings everyone together. It's going to happen!!

One thing that I don't like is the lack of cold and snowstorms over CONUS thus far. I remember mentioning this in December 2023 and December 2024. Even years that were not good for us (2019,2020,2023) still had way more snowstorms and cold thus far. In many years, the snowstorms began as early as October, but even if it didn't begin in October, it began in November, and there would be a few large ones and several smaller ones as we neared December. Fall 2023, Fall 2024, and Fall 2025 have been virtually devoid of snow across CONUS outside of a few mountain ranges in New England and parts of the Great Lakes (and even then, that's been pretty muted). Part of this is likely due to the warmth in Canada, as that moderates temps across the northern tier, making most of their precipitation rain thus far. Ideally, you like to see a quick start to the season in October or November across the Plains and Upper Midwest, but like Fall 2023 and Fall 2024, that has been almost entirely absent this season. Snow begets snow, and cold begets cold. When that is absent from nearly the entirety of the US, with December right around the corner, that's never a good sign imo. I raised these points last November and December as well.

He's playing his reverse psychology game, it'll change once something good hits us.

Clouds seem to be the only thing preventing our afternoon highs from torching.

Just got through a cloud spoke here from the typical GL low, but it's gotten sunny again. The afternoon is looking prime: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12 OTOH, New York State is cloudy...because it usually is. They're definitely on the wrong side of the Great Lakes with the exception of LES which would probably get played out after a while.

We shall see if he gets some playing time. That's exactly what he needs. Clearly has more talent than the 2 turds currently playing OG.