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Signs of life now.

Yes agreed on the rain difference vs your area. That said, I’m looking at landscapes relative to the drought monitor conditions… In my experience the seacoast doesn’t radiate well, especially right in the cities, which is where I’m at. Our higher dews than the interior may have made this affect more impactful on the local landscapes. Again, a walk around town, it doesn’t look like severe drought. The drought conditions are hardly noticeable in most cases until, of course, you get to a river..Different world.

I’ll sell that look, but most models do eject some PVA our way while a little lobe of an ULL tries to interact as it drops due south out of QB. EC, ggem, and 6z gfs all look wetter than they did yesterday. I don’t think that 00z gfs look is happening as it was phasing off to our SW and closed the hole system off under us.

Until that W PAC meaningfully changes it’s very difficult to be hopeful south of I-90 for a decent winter. Maybe there can be an outlier like 20-21 but that’s a maybe one in ten proposition. Or we get a season with no/little SE Ridge like last winter and lots of suppression. Of course the I-90 corridor and north can still get a lot from SWFEs which 07-08 had pretty much every other day.

Meh…dew happens every night. I haven’t even had much fog here yet. The little bit of foliar moisture the leaves absorb is transpired out by mid morning. Obviously it lessens or temporarily halts the stress until the next day, but isn’t doing much. Sure, it’s better than a well mixed, dry night. Every lawn here is scorched brown, but you’ve had a lot more rain than we have too.

In much cruder terms, yes....but I didn't really understand it. Christ, I look back at my stuff from 3-4 years ago and am in awe at how clueless I was....and suspect I'll do the same in 3-4 more years with any luck. While this can be construed as self-deprecation, it's also a sign of growth, insight and a capacity for self-reflection, so I'm quite okay with it-

It has minimal to do with measured precip. Absorption through the leaves is the driving factor. With the near ideal radiational cooling, have had consistent 10-12 hours of dew. It is not a replacement for rain but it definitely has halted drought effects on most shrubs, flowers and grasses locally.

I agree with this. This is why although I think we will do "better" than many recent seasons, there is still a "cap" on cold/snowfall potential. While I do believe that 2013-2014 is a vaible analog in some respects, I do not expect a carbon copy of that season, and what you have just pointed out is a large reason why.

Depending on his exact location he may have to deal with downsloping now depending on storm track.

Although 2014 was about as slow as 2025 on this date (only 3 fewer ACE), it didn’t get any more ACE after today til Oct 11th. So, due to Gabrielle, 2025 should be well ahead of 2014 by mid to late next week. At this point, 2022 actually had 4 fewer ACE than 2025. However, Fiona was just becoming a MH and about to add a lot of ACE along with Ian becoming an H a week from now. So, 2025 is progged to soon fall well behind 2022. Regardless, 2022 ended with only 94 meaning 2025 could conceivably approach that if Gabrielle were to get strong along with an active October. Although 2015 on this date had 2 more NS than 2025, it actually had 14 fewer ACE and didn’t reach the current 2025 level of ACE til early Oct. It finished with only 63. So, if Gabrielle were to get strong, 2025 would have a good shot at exceeding the entire 2015 with additional significant activity by early Oct.

Looks like the Euro is now on board with a system tracking in the Gulf in the same timeframe. The difference with the Euro AI is the Euro has the system forming in the eastern Bahamas and tracking through the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Gap instead of a CAG genesis.

per NWS: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA... A record high temperature of 89°F was set at Williamsport today. This breaks the old record of 88°F set in 1964. 55 degrees this morning

Sell . No ensemble support

Wrong side of the river

Sure, why not. 4 days vaca starting Weds in Moosehead Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Record heat to our west yesterday with temperatures only missing 90° by 1°. This is why I have been discussing the potential for 85°-90°heat since late August even when models weren’t showing it. Models often underestimate the heat potential during flash droughts. 443 CDUS41 KCTP 190624 CLIIPT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 224 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025 ................................... ...THE WILLIAMSPORT PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 18 2025... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 89R 351 PM 88 1964 75 14 78

I mentioned it a few days ago but the WPAC SST alignment matches previous years that saw a lot of +WPO. This -PDO cycle has been different than the last major -PDO cycle we saw (1940’s-1970’s), where where we now have the western North Pacific boiling, unlike back then

Why does it matter? People don't build homes etc. "due to" a hurricane. Many of these places - including Crenshaw - survived Harvey just fine, and many of these places have been built since Harvey and are thus counted towards the stats in that article. The Houston area didn't get completely destroyed and have to be rebuilt from nothing after Harvey. The point is - most homes and businesses are being built much better to withstand flooding these days, thus it's not as foolish as it's made out to be. IMO the key is - people need to know that there are risks, be wiling to accept them (including insurance), and IMO the government should not subsidize the risk like it often does.

That sucks but a good reason you're moving I hope.

Hmmm

Highs: TEB: 87 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 85 LGA: 85 PHL: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 83 BLM: 83 NYC: 83 ACY: 80 JFK: 79

FOLKS https://xl.weatherstar.dev/

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.09.2025 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 53.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.09.2025 0 21.2N 53.0W 1007 31 1200UTC 19.09.2025 12 22.0N 55.0W 1008 32 0000UTC 20.09.2025 24 23.6N 57.0W 1009 32 1200UTC 20.09.2025 36 24.7N 58.8W 1009 32 0000UTC 21.09.2025 48 26.5N 60.2W 1010 34 1200UTC 21.09.2025 60 28.2N 60.8W 1009 41 0000UTC 22.09.2025 72 30.2N 61.7W 1006 46 1200UTC 22.09.2025 84 33.0N 61.7W 1002 44 0000UTC 23.09.2025 96 35.8N 59.1W 996 45 1200UTC 23.09.2025 108 38.1N 54.2W 985 51 0000UTC 24.09.2025 120 39.9N 47.4W 977 61 1200UTC 24.09.2025 132 41.4N 39.6W 971 67 0000UTC 25.09.2025 144 42.7N 32.6W 974 53 1200UTC 25.09.2025 156 44.9N 26.7W 978 46 0000UTC 26.09.2025 168 48.3N 21.8W 980 41

It's kind of silly to see the H5 change the SSTAs and then everyone go with what the SSTs show. For the next 10 days, we have a Gulf of Alaska low and Aleutian ridge.. the PDO is going to go pretty negative again. but these are the symptom, not the cause. It would actually be easier to roll forward PNA patterns/analogs instead of always looking at SSTs, because SSTs are actually always a few weeks behind. MJO/ENSO waves move the N. Pacific pattern, which in turn move around the SSTAs. Kelvin/Rossby waves are probably as close as your cause/main drivers. There have been a few more rossby waves with developing La Nina, which will probably create more -PNA tendency going through the Fall (maintaining a -2 to -3 PDO). Watch the ENSO subsurface, if cold water -200m strengthens, it's more -PNA/-PDO tendency, and warmer water there is more +PNA/+PDO. The gravity waves at the surface move these subsurface water anomalies.

We have 10 more years I think until we can say this with confidence. We had a bonanza period that lasted about 18 years with a few duds thrown in. We were due for a sharp reversion to the mean-there's no way NYC can get away with regular 40" snow winters. So if this new regime started in 2018, that would be 2036 when we have an equally long timeframe as the snowier one. Also the background warming means marginal snow situations 30 years ago would be rain now-so the bad years are even worse.