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It still moves the SW energy east so I'm okay with it existing for now. Just need to get that piece east to get a storm... speaking of which so far the GFS is not seeming too enthused.

Snow in Virginia Friday morning on the GFS?

NashSevere never goes against OHX,you practically never have any discrepancy between the two

Were Feb. 2010 and January 2016 easier patterns to produce huge storms? Did the guidance ever waver for those two?

18z aigfs now looks more like the 12z euro

Yeah a bit north/weaker HP on the GFS so far

Yeah, I think it helps us not worry too much about suppression as that needs both phases to go perfectly. As of now we just need to pray the first one can work to some extent (or it gets kicked east on its own thanks to some other thing) if it doesn't I don't have high hopes.

There’s nothing to discuss

18z aigfs is a pretty big jump south. Still gets a decent swath of snow into DC but weenies won't be as happy. Max qpf stripe in NC this run

AI GFS shifted way south

AiGFS with a noticeable bump south. Still decent but the heaviest are down at the VA/NC border and south

I guess that should calm peoples fears of suppression somewhat.

We can’t even discuss it in banter?.

Not much differences so far with 18z GFS but the AI trended colder!

18z GFS Skynet is more suppressed this run for the weekend. Scraper.

The energy is a massive piece of the equation and if that goes sideways, it’s over. Probably the biggest question mark in the whole deal inside 84hrs. Then the confluence afterwards.

I'm trying to think of a similar storm setup but nothing like this for RDU area. 3 day event with Saturday upper teens at night and snowing. I can't remember a storm with temps that cold while it was snowing. It's always right at (or above...) freezing.

out to 75h on 18z GFS and very slight differences. Nothing to change the course

AI gfs unfortunately way south

18Z AIGFS much colder! It folded

GFS seems just an ass hair better with the suppression vs 12z

Okay new topic

That piece, the press of the PV and confluence, location/strength of hp. See @SnowenOutThere post above. He did a great job breaking it down.

Guesses on who will try the hardest to find the negatives in future runs? This is going to be a looooong few days

Great post @SnowenOutThere. I also want to highlight how incredibly difficult it is to get a perfect clean phase. Like two kickers kicking two separate balls from opposite sidelines at the 50 yd line and have both balls collide in the middle between the fg posts. That difficult. So a messy imperfect phase or a slight miss is much more likely, which should still give us some snow if not too suppressed by the TPV over canada.