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Saw two sets of birds flying in the arrow formation this morning... heading south? Early? 65F/Cloudy

About time they tagged it. I think the GFS has led the way here in not losing the signal for genesis like the Euro/EPS and other guidance. The wave while elongated still, is consolidating and importantly has become convectively active, though high shear is nearby. There may be a jet streak that enhances this once it is north of the Antilles. I was bullish on this wave before and was a little confused as to why the guidance signal dropped the way it did. We’ll see what happens.

Thoughts on tomorrow being a good beach day at Smith Point? I've always appreciated the day after a good coastal if it's not too windy.

East of Fenwick , seas up last 90 minutes https://www.surfline.com/buoy-report/delaware-bay-26-nm-southeast-of-cape-may-nj-buoy-44009/2de908f0-cecc-11eb-890b-024238d3b313 Significant Height 12.5FT Dominant Period 8s Mean Direction ENE69° Wave Energy 2962kJ Wind 29KTSNNE 39kts gust Temperature 72°F air Air 75 F water

Charts gonna chart. SMH

Ensembles project it at second coolest of this century. Behind 2004. Greensboro is project at coolest since 1996

Looks like Erin is moving almost due East now.

Rather impressive.

Erin put on a clinic on how to avoid impact with every land mass. Impressive driving skills.

Take em up

71/49. perfect

According to the gfs we could be flirting with record lows next week and I'd venture to say some sweet spots may see their first 30s of the season.

Oh my Current Surf Conditions Local time:11:42am, EDT (UTC-4) Condition Rating Forecaster·39 mins ago POOR Surf Height 6-10FT Observed Head to 2x overhead https://northwildwood.com/north-wildwood-surf-cams/

This August has been incredible. Though there was a high humidity stretch with all the rain, we still haven’t broken 90, RDU cracked it once (barely) and it now looks LIKELY we will make it through the month of August with zero 90-degree days. I honestly don’t know if that has ever happened in my lifetime. Sure RDU won’t report a zero 90 August but this has to be one of the coolest August’s in RDU history

I disagree, we had some of the best color and lasting color too in the fall. One of the better ones in years.

First time in while when looking at https://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-moisture my current soil moisture is above 5 year and 10 year averages, while my current soil temp is below 5 year and 10 year averages. I believe to overseed a cool season lawn you want a 5 day average soil temp of 70 degrees or lower. Still waiting until Sept to do any lawn overseeding projects, but at least the medium trend is positive for lawn health in areas of the forum where rain has fallen.

Holy frigging COC. The vey best weather.

Yes! Trying to confirm that you are correct in observation that such sustained high humidity is unusual, not to be pedantic (although I know if anywhere, this is the place to be pedantic)

Is it gonna be a highly saturated/wet storm?

And Chris lad over on s2k said it roped Next ChrisH-UK Category 2 Posts: 643 Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am Re: Small low pressure area over the Central Subtropical Atlantic (30/30) #6 by ChrisH-UK » Thu Aug 21, 2025 10:21 am And gone. Looks like it's convection dissipated and it has fallen apart, the models showed it wouldn't be around for long.

A low of 41F in August is absolutely insane to me, as I lived in the south for three decades. But I love it. By August I'm mentally checked out of summer and thinking only of autumn (yes, it was that way when I lived in the south. It's a bad time to be checked out of summer when it's still hitting the upper 90s and 100s everyday). It didn't get down to 41F where I live in CT, but it was an amazing day yesterday. The temps dropped into the mid 50s for most of the day. I got to sleep under all of my covers last night, the first time in a long time. I'm so ready for that to be an every night thing.

Now the hurricane models will run. This could possibly affect Bermuda directly but would there even be much to it?

I agree. We're about the same age and in middle/high school I ran cross country and don't remember a) temps above about 97 and b) this kind of humidity. Of course that wasn't a particularly long time. As soon as I went away to college, I discovered beer, pizza and blew up like a balloon and rarely saw a clock before noon.

If I'm not mistaken the perfect recipe for good fall foliage is about average amounts of precip with persistent cooler nights in early fall correct? Hopefully we get good foliage this time around, last year sucked cause of the drought.

You have to take a closer look at the seasons. This year looks more like 2007, a year that was (at this point in the season) skewed by one storm (Dean). It would later be skewed by a 2nd storm (Felix) later in August, but after that, from September on, we didn't get much more than a bunch of minor storms. Years like 2012, 2020, and 2021 were further along in the alphabet, and the signs were there for an active season. I'm really surprised the ACE values were that low for those years. I just don't see that this year. It looks more like 1992 (one-storm wonder) or 2007 (two-storm wonder). The next 2-4 weeks will tell us a lot more. If it isn't active, then you need to let it go. The season isn't suddenly going to get active in October and November. As they say, the tiger doesn't change stripes.