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A nice, easy warm advection snow event would be the best. No mixing, just cold powder.

From Allan Huffman

If it's going to be ice, we can only hope QPF drops off as well. Anything to prevent major accrual.

The ICON looks like a step in the right direction through 72, with more spacing

Seems like PM guidance is trending more toward MA and N CT. Either way looks like a C-1” deal. Maybe a spot 2” for someone if they get lucky.

That’s what we want

Not surprised. It’s been quietly talked about all week

With virtual an option, probably longer than they need to.

Extrapolation says game on

A couple

18z 12k NAM last frame shows the beginning of it.

I'll let someone more qualified than me comment on meaning, but here's ICON 18z (top) versus 12z (bottom). Valid Saturday 12z. Baja wave looks more organized and more positively tilted. Northern stream energy has a different position too

Is this the gooning thread for the weekend?

Question… if the biggest hit scenarios are what we get in MoCo, how long would schools be closed for? I have never experienced a snowstorm like this despite living here 10 years.

ICON is also a touch flatter out front

local hardware stores on FB saying they're out of rock salt already, lol

Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo

I think your on to something a mid range model by combing the GFS and the NAM OH DEAR GOD NO

End of the NAM. At least it's more sleet than freezing rain.

legit LOL'ed

18z icon seems to follow the nam trend of going back to the overrunning type system vs the amp'd solution

I definitely understand, Parts of Long Island could flip to sleet unfortunately, even NYC. I am mostly basing my forecasting off GFS and especially Euro AI. plenty of time still

Alena has mentioned it in the mornings since Monday. Ava and Tommy T went into it more last night. Showing ensemble percentages and such. 4pm news started with Tony giving the aleet haha usually 415ish when they do their first wx segment. Doubt they mention actual totals

One thing that I'm noticing is that the models with a stronger 850 low in the central US are the ones that are able to drive it up to Cleveland and eventually draw up the warm sector for us at the end of the storm. The GFS does not do that, with a weak 850 low that is eventually replaced by a new low that forms off of Cape May, NJ.

Notice that an hour ago. It did get cloudy and darker to the W but nothing yet. Should be entering my area soon...