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and now its bright sun and snow!

That is what usually happens with arctic blasts in +TNH patterns...historic cold knifes down the center of the country and we get unremarkable anomalies.

I looked up a pic of graupel. You're exactly right, that's what is falling here.

can’t remember the last time we’ve seen subsidence like this over the MC… straight up P8 forcing late month

If it wasn’t 48 when it started, we would have definitely gotten a couple tenths in a matter of 3-5 minutes. Temp dropped to 37.

The La Nina is almost over. The subsurface wasn't even meaningfully negative in Dec, definitely won't be in Jan. 0-300m down for 100-180W by the equator was only -0.03 in Dec, v. -1.20 in Dec 2024. It's night and day different. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt The eastern zones of 3 and also 1.2 are much warmer than they have been in a while. The rapid transitions out of La Nina to El Nino tend to be stormy in the West and we've seen that in recent weeks/months. The record warmth out here is more tied to the North Pacific, it's more of a leftover from last winter than a direct driver from this winter. Essentially the setup is nearly identical in the background for the north pacific, and since we've had near neutral conditions in the tropics, not a whole lot has changed. Once we get in Feb/Mar/Apr the subsurface warming will either peak and reverse or continue and that will shake up the pattern.

Yeah that was a uniform snowfall if there ever was one, at least locally.

Not at all! Personally I nearly couldn't care less if it snows or not, this is not my only hobby. Sorry, I just can't stand AI anything. To this point I've seen it cause far more problems than it's helped solve, and that's likely to only get worse

Comparisons of indices Jan ‘26 to Jan ‘17 1. Jan of 2017 was also at this time in phase 6. But that’s where the similarities end as 2017’s phase 6 was much shorter (lasted <2 days) and it sped all the way around to phase 3 by late month! It may just get to 8 at about the same time. So, MJO starting off similar but ending totally different. 2. PNA similar through Jan 21st but then 2017 went back to +PNA. We’ll see whether 2026 does that. 3. Strong +AO 2017 vs strong -AO 2026. So, AO patterns are opposites. 4. 2017 had a +NAO 1/7-18, but then it turned to a moderate -NAO 1/20-6 before rising to neutral late. 2026: -NAO til today and forecasted to head to weak +NAO for a week+. So, NAOs very different. 5. 2017 had -WPO-EPO most of first 1/2 and then +WPO/+EPO 2nd half vs 2026 having some +WPO/+EPO that’s now turning to -WPO/-EPO, which should last for awhile. So, WPO and EPS very different. In summary, other than ENSO related stuff and PNAs being similar, the other 5 indices are far different. Good luck on getting a similar result to 2017, whatever that result is.

The follow up event that is decent is probably going to have that same gradient of the last 8 years that has driven me nuts...just north of me. I'll go full-tilt.

Canadian keeping me from a meltdown. That’s from about 10 clippers (nickel & dime fashion) through the 21st. So definitely not going to happen.

Squalling here but not much frozen, a few flakes mixed in, poor rates. 44

HoCo death band back…getting you ready for Thursday.

Time to go golfing. It was fun while it lasted which was like three hours.

We lost the UK, ICON, and ECM-AI today. We'll track it to the end like the Challenger crew steered the shuttle, but this is starting to look cooked.

Awesome graupel squall Elkridge/Columbia line. Definitely some flakes mixed in.

Title of the thread should be changed IMO. "VORT 1 thoughts, first of several threats". Looking better as the models evolve in time.

Instant mini dusting

Most likely graupel .

Very cool, great shot!

I dunno it's awful when its too much wind and powder, 2003 and 2005 i managed 10-15" in both and it looked like it snowed about 4-6" with bare grass showing and random 3 foot drifts. And its not like it was .25/hr for 48 hours, there was a six hour period or so there with 1-3"/hr

I'm not sure if we're getting sleet or snow. It's not clear ice like sleet and isn't bouncing off the driveway like sleet. It looks more like tiny round white snowballs, not snowflakes. What is that? It's coming down pretty hard.

That was one of the best Euro runs we've seen in a long time. The cold is re-established, and the wintry events from next week set up some sort of blocking feature in the Atlantic. Seems like ample chances for snow are coming over a generally colder temp regime starting around the 14th. I'm sure not all the snow events will come to fruition, but the more there is in the long range would increase our chances for winter weather.

Ripping sun