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The coupling is extreme. Biggest April - July MEI rise in history, like you said, up to +2.4 now. The highest MEI value we’ve had since 1998 and only 0.5 from the all time record of +2.9: @GaWx @raindancewx @EasternLI @LakePaste25 @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave @csnavywx @BlizzardWx @Stormchaserchuck1 @forkyfork @OSUmetstud

Chesco, you are quite welcome. Seems like an important step towards understanding the data adjustments done by NCEI and BEST, and the topic of this forum.. The next step is to look at how break points are identified using reference stations. Chubbs has a graph above showing the 1946 break resulting from 1 SW's move to Newlinville, and here is similar graph also using raw data. What I have done is synchronize the temperature series at 1945, and removed the absolute temperature values on the Y-axis--because the absolute values don't matter if we are looking for climate trends. This shows just the 1946 break, and shows the RESULT/IMPACT the station move made on Tavg. Now, imagine repeating this process with a large set of reference stations across the whole history of 1 SW to create a time line of breaks and the deg F size of the shift at each break. That is what is done. With the new information from the breaks, we can adjust the station data by reversing the IMPACT of the moves. With the repaired data set, we can then identify baselines and departures from those baselines--anomalies. Absolute values don't matter, the change over time does. Also, by convention the adjustments are made with the end of the raw data series aligned to the same temperature as the end of the adjusted data series. This may lead to confusion when the raw and the adjusted data are viewed in the same graph, because it looks like one series has been "chilled" or "warmed" with respect to the other. The reality is that the raw data for Coatesville is actually several distinct stations, and the adjusted data has been upgraded to be a lot closer to what the raw data would have looked like if the station never moved. Trying to assign absolute temperatures to either time series is not useful when the information we want is change over time. With that in mind, would you clarify what you mean by "there were no unusual temperature changes at Coatesville 1SW that were not statistically aligned with the nearby stations within 30 miles of that point" & "This supports the fact that there was no need for any adjustments to the raw data at all!"?

Sorry for the delay here is August. I think I want to try adding persistence into the new year. I will base it off of a 6 month running mean of the actual anomalies. If anyone has criticisms on this please feel free to let me know how best to approach something like this.

Good weather watching opportunities doing a route like that.

Short Term / High Res Guidance is fairly confident in redevelopment more locally after midnight, that's what the FFWatch is for.

Came across this site. Excellent current stats and ranking for global TCs! https://global-tropical-cyclones.com/ And I got a better list of the top TCs globally by ACE. For some reason they counted Paka from 1997 twice. I think b/c the storm formed in the cntrl Pacific and crossed into the wrn Pacific. So really #20 on the list should be Lola from the NWPAC in 1957. This site from CSU is also excellent for S-T-D activity and archives. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Now I understand, we use MEI now that it has finally caught up but before it was discredited as a metric because it was not showing what people wanted. This thread gets more funny by the day. I feel I should just create a twitter account based off this.

It has become a very large typhoon, which is to be expected w/ a system around this long gradually moving out of the tropics, but the inner core reforming like that w/ a smaller eye that a few days ago is surprising. The other day the eye was about 35 nm in diameter, but now about 20 nm. We still have another 5 days before landfall, so it may form a giant eye yet. Fcst to pass right over Okinawa. Three METAR sites to look at for Okinawa for the passage -- RODN, ROTM, and ROAH. It's too bad the WSR-88D at RODN was decommissioned a few years ago!

The one you seem to be discrediting has actually been more negative than the one you posted. 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21 2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66 2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.29 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.31 -2.37 -1.51 -0.96 2026 -1.24 -1.00 -1.42 -1.62 -1.67 -1.71 -2.03 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Versus 2020 -0.79 -1.12 -1.68 -1.32 -0.68 -0.86 -0.77 -0.85 -0.75 -0.29 -1.23 -0.92 2021 -0.73 -1.29 -1.70 -1.77 -2.33 -1.89 -1.93 -0.84 -1.70 -2.69 -2.37 -2.47 2022 -2.22 -1.72 -1.63 -2.19 -2.44 -1.42 -2.44 -1.78 -1.78 -1.48 -1.83 -1.85 2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20 2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27 -1.99 -3.01 -2.93 -2.62 -2.37 -3.10 -3.24 -2.58 -1.57 2025 -0.97 -1.20 -0.81 -1.07 -1.84 -2.62 -3.83 -2.54 -1.71 -1.82 -1.02 -0.39 2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.29 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one is the one that site uses.

The white hot Red Sox just kicked their asses. Incredible turn around for them. They could win the pennant, as weak as the AL is.

Started with .07" today and then that one line just developed a miles or two to my north so we missed out on some good rains there. But just now this little guy has popped up and has pushed my rainfall to .18" as its raining pretty good from it.

Picked up a nice .86 this evening. Very surprised with only a 15% chance of rain.

[emoji445]Oh, Momma, I'm in fear for my life from the long arm of the law... Lawman has put an end to my runnin', and I'm so far from my home... Oh, Momma, I can hear you a'cryin; you're so scared and all alone... Hangman is comin' down from the gallows, and I don't have very long... Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Dodgers losing to the Cubs right now, love to see it.

Looks to be a quiet night and morning. Next

Yeah, FW’s aren’t going to verify.

Povich! Yeah it was against the lowly Angels. But still. Watch the fire sale Os go on a run now lol. I have to root against it because Elias needs to fail miserably. The con man/gas lighter needs to go.

My earlier optimism for overnight rain is fizzling.

This is the type of drivel we see now (see attachment). The CFS this far out does more harm than good IMHO b/c too many ppl simply have no idea how to use it and its caveats or they do know, and just seek to monetize w/ hype. Ever notice winters forecasts from many, always hedging cold/snow, even when we have a solid knowledge and skill a strong El Nino leads to mild temps across the CONUS? And how these loosers aromatically think just b/c its cold or strong El Nino, that just doesn't mean big snowstorms, but the absolute extremes from history. I blot the name of these sites b/c why give thmn exposure. That's what they want! And the general idea that b/c this may be the strongest El Nino on record, means you can simply extrapolate up every sensible wx impact from it? Well, that's not how it works. The atmosphere does not work in a linear 1-2-3 fashion! A great case of this was 2024 when it was supposed to be the end of days for the ATLC hurr season, and you had the global spike in temp from the Hunga-Tonga eruption from the WV in the stratosphere. Warmer shifts the ITCZ farther N into the Sahara, as was the case several 1000 years ago when the Sahara was green. We got big rains the in Sahara, but the problem was that the source region for tropical waves was put into a much drier environment, plus, tropical waves came off Africa at a higher latitude where the SSTs are cooler. This squashed a large part of the "seeds" for TCs in the MDR, and the result was the peak of the season was severely suppressed, and this was not fcst by any, and the hurr season for total numbers were no where near the fcsts. So the above is an example of non-linear effects w/ higher global temps, as one example.

I was down in Sarasota for a family wedding in late April and it already felt like mid summer, with a few lizards mixed in! It’s crazy how fast it warms up down there and I’d imagine there’s no gradual step down in intensity like we’re used to here.

As a huge pie fan straight from the heart of market basket, thank you for your service. Those blueberry pies have gotten me through many troubled times and chilly winter nights!

It's not a fish storm, it's a mammal storm!

Somewhere in Gifford Woods is a stand of old growth/virgin forest. I remember reading about it years ago.

All set...weenies rejoice for this winter!

[emoji445]Oh, Momma, I'm in fear for my life from the long arm of the law... Lawman has put an end to my runnin', and I'm so far from my home... Oh, Momma, I can hear you a'cryin; you're so scared and all alone... Hangman is comin' down from the gallows, and I don't have very long... Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk