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NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center rsooendptS93ll8l6h0ia7ih8m02l1ft471839mg0lah48h73ghu4fhflf88 · 6/19 2:40 AM EDT: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely today across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, and also parts of the Carolinas and New England. The severe risk should peak this afternoon and evening, before convection moves offshore or weakens. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely be the primary risk with these thunderstorms, but isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

571 FXUS61 KCTP 190813 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 413 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- * Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening particularly across the southeast half of central PA * Not as humid for the first day of summer on Friday with a couple of passing rain showers/isolated gusty thunderstorm * Trending warmer to start the weekend with a major to extreme heat risk Sunday through next Wednesday -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- Muggy start today with sunrise temps in the 65-70F range and fog in the central and eastern ridge/valley region. High PW axis aligned with strong isentropic lift/WAA pattern on nose of 40-50kt 850mb jet will likely keep a few showers going across the western Alleghenies early this morning. Focus will shift to severe t-storm risk for later this afternoon/evening. Seasonally strong upper trough located over IL at 06Z will advance into the Upper OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. Convection should readily develop along and just ahead of an eastward advancing cold front or prefrontal trough within a very moist/unstable environment particularly near max PWAT/CAPE bullseye over the southeastern half to 1/3 of central PA. SPC has maintained a level 2 out of 5 risk over most of this area, but did increase the severe threat to level 3 of 5 (ENH) along the I95 corridor which does clip York and Lancaster Counties. Severe wind gusts remain the primary concern with deep shear profiles favoring organized line segments and clusters. HREF data indicates storms exit the Lower Susq Valley after 00Z with any lingering shower activity fading by late tonight/06Z Fri. Flash flood risk should be reduced to some extent today with more progressive storm motions perpendicular to the front. However, with high PWs 1-2 inches, extremely sensitive/primed soils, and significantly reduced 1hr FFG as low as 0.5" (thanks to 7-day rainfall 200-400 percent of normal) an isolated flash flood is possible particularly in the most vulnerable/wettest locations across the Laurel Highlands and south central Alleghenies. Post frontal WNW flow will direct drier air (lower Td/PW) into CPA overnight with low temps falling back into a more comfortable mid 50s to low 60s range or 5-10 degrees cooler than last night. This flow may also bank low clouds along the Allegheny Front beneath subsidence inversion associated with sfc ridge axis extending northward from 1020mb high pressure over the Central Appalachians.

Hurricane Erick Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details. ...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... 12:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 Location: 15.5°N 97.5°W Moving: NW at 9 mph Min pressure: 939 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Public

enhanced risk

Is it winter yet?

Glyconix

The thinking from the SPC is that the storms will likely fire pre frontal. NWS at the very least, is advertising the potential of the front timing up very well with max daytime heating for cpa. Maybe they aren't buying into the pre-frontal convection at all . You also don't usually hear them say things like "the slight risk remains in place for good reasons," which also shows me that the discrepancies weren't just in my head. Lol .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The approach of a long wave trough aloft will put us in the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak moving poleward on Thursday. The cold front associated with this trough will be arriving in Central PA in peak heating/mid-day and shear also increases to 40+KT over most of the area. Expect SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two to be ongoing in the AM over wrn PA and fire up over the CTP CWA in the late morning and aftn. As the day continues, the CAPEs in the SE get back into the 1500-2000J range in the E. The SPC SLGT risk of severe remains in place for good reasons. Flooding should be much less of a concern Thurs vs Wed with storm motions much quicker despite PWAT values of 1.5-2" (highest E). Still a MRGL risk of excessive rain, though, as repeated cells could make for localized problems. Not enough of a risk nor confidence to post a FF Watch at this point.

Yep, 0z has the stronger westerly flow which drives the heat right to the coast. That will be key-if we get the onshore flow there's a strong cap on it getting higher than low 90s near the coast when water temps are still low 60s. Maybe even 80s if it's more of a SSE flow. But westerly downslope and we heat up big time everywhere.

Big correction to hotter on GFS. 100+ now looks like a lock away from immediate coast.

The difference between the GFS and most of the other models is that the GFS has much higher heights out west while the Euro, EPS, and CMC have more of a trough out west. The higher heights on the GFS out west (very possibly a mistake) allow the high pressure and backdoor front over eastern Canada to drop southward into our region. If the GFS corrects and introduces lower heights out west it will probably become more like the other models. Likewise if the other models start showing higher heights out west they will be more aggressive with the backdoor cold front. WX/PT

Almost midnight and the air temperatures are 80 to 83 degrees on lower and central Delmarva. Summer is definitely here.

I could see a late morning upgrade to an ENH risk from I-66 north for a 30% wind. Timing is everything in these parts, if that front lags then it's going to come down to luck on who gets a decent storm. Seems like we flip to real summer after this frontal passage.

I noticed some discrepancies throughout the day with the forecast. The big question seems to be will the storms Initiate along a pre frontal boundary or along the lagging cold front. Watching initiation tomorrow is key. If the storms can get going out head of the cold front instead of the pre-frontal trough we could be looking at something big tomorrow.

IMO we are at least a year away (maybe longer) from any substantial PDO change

https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/kaos.mp4

Saw lightning from the storm in upstate NY all the from downtown jersey city. Pretty cool tops must be pretty high

Too late... I already stole it. https://kaosfactory.github.io/desktopX1.html

I am so curious what the winds are in this thing right now. Conventional wisdom would say that Erick is bombing out and maybe some insane wind gusts are wrapping around the eyewall. However, I can't help but notice the trochoidal wobbles of the pinhole eye. This circulation isn't fully stacked on a tiny axis centered within the pinhole eye just yet. Rather the eye is wobbling around within a larger local circulation, most likely a EWRC. I trust the 125mph estimate for now

Pin hole eyes can really produce some high end winds relative to pressure. Also the cdo is rather small too.

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered. It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough. That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH. Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

Someone claimed this They claimed they had the dream around June 14

Stormtracker background image...

Ravens are pretty stacked.. I don't think they have a weak part on this team. Maybe kicker. Defense looks great, maybe top 5. This also takes out the wild card of if Nate Wiggins is good or not.

Thinking about using this for intellistar emulator... Is that OK? Already using a stormtracker image. I would ultimately like them to be all images from our forum.

Training camp starts in a month. Can't come soon enough.