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that was the GEFS

That's why mid feb storms are better more qpf usually .. Yes a ton of ensemble support actually

Why aren't we jumping on chairs, shouting, screaming about our Friday mini blizzard which may add a inch, wind and a little thrill as the cold air arrives? I'm damn pumped for that one along w/the Superbowl... 32F/Sunny

MJO not favorable currently for a big northeast snow event. In phase 2 predicted to progress thru 3,4,5,6 thru now to March 4th.

I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup.

Yeah for sure, any ensemble support?

For the stingy EPS at days 10-11? That's a strong signal imho.

That’s a bit of an April ‘97 snowfall distribution in E MA (but not into S ME)

LFG

I like your original thought.

lol if only.. Euro doesn't spit out too many weenie solutions anymore rare to see a 12z or 00z run do this.. Signal is there but it will change every 6 hours until early next week ..

Anyone got the EPS for around the 14th they can post?

its also not very snowy lol

Clearing every 6hrs is a nice interval so that places that get a lot of high ratio snow…like upslope areas and LES..don’t get penalized by compaction. Take BUF in late Dec 2001. 24th starting 6z depth 0” New snow 20.5” ending 5z depth 18” (+18”) 25th 5z depth 18” new snow 4.9” ending 0z depth 18” (0”) 26th 12z depth 18” new snow 8.0” 6z depth 25” (+7”) 27th 6z depth 25” new snow 21.9” 6z depth 33” (+8”) 28th 6z depth 33” new snow 26.2” 20z depth 44” (+11”) 0z depth 41” (or +8”) 12z depth 38” (or +5”) That’s 48.1” in the final 2 days with only 13” to 19” depth gain depending on when you caught the last depth measurement. Imagine it snowing hard enough to produce 26” new with 6 hourly clearings, but it only goes in the books as 5” the next morning because of compaction?

Meh only 20-40" 982 on BM

WB 12Z GEFS is not suppressed.

Wouldn’t put any stock into a d10-11 output regardless of which model it was. Well see how the AIs look vs OPs in another few days. AI runs have had that storm off and on the last few cycles.

Thanks! This is exactly what I was wondering and I didn't know I had worded my question correctly.

Some of the AI models are now starting to suggest a scenario where the northern stream system on Feb 11-12 cuts off and slows down, underneath a block over NE Canada (held in place by the upper low east of Newfoundland) which connects with ridging in the central US. Low probability scenario for now, but most ensemble guidance at least suggests a northern stream system passing through with light precip during that time.

Huge QPF maker

I don't waste my time trolling. Just because I stepped on your toes after your instigation , you are still sore. Chill out man. Life is too short for that kind of crap.

The CCB on the backside would be pretty wicked. 1/hr+ rates vs. puddles and mediocre surface temps.

Heartbreaker? I'm taking my 10" of slop and running.

For BOS 30 year periods back to when they started gathering the data at Logan: Dec Jan 1941-1970 32.9 29.0 1951-1980 33.5 29.2 1961-1990 33.5 28.7 1971-2000 34.7 29.3 1981-2010 35.0 29.3 1991-2020 36.0 30.2 2025/2026 31.3 28.8 So December was colder than any 30-year climate period, and January was colder than any climate period but 1961-1990 (colder by 0.1°). Feb will need to torch the end of the month to be much above!

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board.