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They tend to be pretty accurate with the big picture, as the MJO orbit is very predictable. Minor details, such as exact strength of the WWB, exact day (late sept or early oct) are more TBD and this won’t accurately predict that this far out.

Some crazy flooding over in Bloomfield.

Guess it rained a lot! Lots of flooding in my area.

I'm so f@#king sick of the heat. Feels like temp 105.4 WTF

The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record:

As predictable as the sun rising in the east.

Ended the event with 1.55" of rain here, nearly 1" of that came between 0600 and 0700. Welcome rain here after a dry week. Not looking forward to the muggy weather for the next 18 hours before the cooler, drier air moves in.

Per this the min of 3.6 may have already been hit. If so, that’s well above the worst:

ISP over 3"

Only .13 here & most of that was at the tail end this morning. Disappointing for sure, but thankfully it’s not Winter!

89F / 76 dew / 101 index. .52" overnight left the windows misty on the outside.

66F/ 1.06" still raining....

https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2099172404907872474

Ended up with only 0.90 inches of rain. 2.94" for the month.

It still looks to me like the heat ridge starts to break down just after the 20th. Models were just too quick w/ the initial look. Cosgrove(in his update) mentioned that the Lower 48 may well return to normal or even below for October. I have found the GFS a little better during shoulder season as it will spot cold fronts or cool downs earlier. Models really struggle during fall as there a lot of flux.I do agree that there is potential this could last into the 2nd or 3rd weak of October, but the pattern should run its course by the fourth week of September. Lots of ext guidance has the second half of fall with cool temps. Time will tell.

It appears we may be stuck in the 50s for much of the day. It's the first taste of fall.

wish it was here https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2099163993369633061

Quite Steamy now 78 / 72

Congrats coastal CT! 1.04” in Syosset & only 0.68” in Muttontown.

Dew of 49?

I think this is the 5th run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32 1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41 0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39 1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30 0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29 1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

We received 4.48" here in Clifton, highest one day total since we had 8"+ during Hurricane Ida in 2021.

Crushed. Micro kids football was fun.