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Looks like a winter storm, quick burst then dry slot

.14 since midnight....Potomac at Brunswick looks higher than it's been in a long time....good news as we head into summer.

One positive is that now both weekend days are forecast to be dry. So this will be gone by tomorrow morning.

Does it have anything to do with the gulf stream? We just had another bout of heavy rain a few minutes ago.

it sounds like this would also lead to cooler summers. so we are getting +nao in the winter and -nao in the spring and summer. Based on this alone I would forecast a +nao next winter with snowfall under 20 inches the more rain and blocking we get now and into summer the less cold and snow we will have in the winter. It's a formula that has worked for decades.

90 degree days in the summer and 90 inch snowfall in the winter and the added bonus of being ecologically friendly and not a light pollution mecca like the east coast is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flagstaff,_Arizona Dark Sky City [edit] Flagstaff takes one of its nicknames from its designation as the world's first International Dark Sky City, with deliberate measures to reduce light pollution beginning in 1958[139] supported by the environmentally-aware population and community advocates, government and elected officials, and the assistance of observatories in the area – including the United States Naval Observatory Flagstaff Station and Lowell Observatory.[140][141][142][143] The city's designation as an International Dark Sky City was on October 24, 2001, by the International Dark-Sky Association, after a proposal by the Flagstaff Dark Skies Coalition to start the recognition program. It is seen as a world precedent in dark sky preservation.[144] Before this, it had been nicknamed the "Skylight City" in the 1890s, the same decade that the Lowell Observatory was founded.[145] In 1958, it passed Ordinance 400,[139] which outlawed using large or powerful searchlights within city limits. In the 1980s a series of measures were introduced for the city and Coconino County, and the Dark Sky Coalition was founded in 1999 by Chris Luginbuhl and Lance Diskan. Luginbuhl is a former U.S. Naval astronomer,[146] and Diskan had originally moved to Flagstaff from Los Angeles so that his children could grow up able to see stars, saying that "part of being human is looking up at the stars and being awestruck."[145] It was reported that even though greater restrictions on types of public lighting were introduced in 1989,[147] requiring them all to be low-emission, some public buildings like gas stations hadn't updated by 2002, after the Dark Sky designation.[148] Flagstaff and the surrounding area is split into four zones, each permitted different levels of light emissions. The highest restrictions are in south and west Flagstaff (near NAU and its observatory), and at the Naval, Braeside, and Lowell Observatories.[56] Photographs detecting emissions taken in 2017 show that Flagstaff's light is 14 times less than another Western city of comparable size, Cheyenne, Wyoming, which Luginbuhl described as "even better than [they] might have expected".[146]

Goodluck

We take!

The jet stream weakening after the winter and plenty of blocking in Canada allowing lows to cutoff underneath.

Pretty amazing that it has such a similar look on the radar from the last event. Maybe 30 miles west. Almost like atmospheric recall.

I think if you look back throughout history, you won't find many blockbuster seasons on the east coast with a strongly +WPO/NAO, regardless of whether or not it was prohibitively warm in the mean. I have found zero dating back to 1948, in fact, so this isn't a novel concept. All of these rules you are treating as fact are still speculative and you are operating as if they are fact. I know you will find data to support your theories and contend that its fact, but the fact of the matter is that any inference beyond the fact that the climate is warming is still specualtive at this point.

2.91” MTD here. Hopefully not too much today

It's obvious I need to cut stuff back and obvious it will set me back thousands lol. Hard to get good measurements if there is any wind. Just procrastinating.

Flagstaff is a great spot. Super high though, like altitude sickness high.

You won’t need it until mid June.

Did you snatch my rain shield generator?

Almost 0.10" overnight here.

Those things really came down last night hers. Wet and stuck to everything. Hate the dong

Like the warm sector punched in ... yeah. It smells like spring now though - at least down here. We're 2/3 .. 3/4 leafed out. All have started but the sizes are small to mid. We need that 82/58 for three days with big sun to elephant ear.

Okay, I didn't realize you were connecting it to the mismatch research...all you said was +PNA December. But I still don't see the significance relative to next season. I would have to say just based on sheer odds given the warming trend, you are probably right with respect to it not being a cold, but I agree that snowfall is a lot more dubious. If we got an identical pattern next season, but flipped the WPO and NAO negative, then it would be significantly snowier. I am all for keeping an open mind in relation to the influence of CC, but not at the expense of ignoring traditional teleconnections. Many of those seasons you listed simply had better patterns. 1995 had an ideal pattern in all respects....2000-2001 had a negative NAO, in 2018 the SSW took place one month earlier, so it didn't take until March if effect the pattern and flip the polar domain more favorable, and 2020-2021 had a -NAO, even though it wasn't excessively so.

Now that my tree canopy is over my Davis not sure. Maybe 1.4 or so. The oak dongs are starting and expecting 2-3" by end of month.

Vorticity observed on radar with the band moving into Suffolk County.

too many spiders/scorpions/snakes/lizards (although no light pollution is really good.) Flagstaff would be a dream, snowy in the winter, dry and hot in the summer and a certified dark city with very low light pollution. the space heater works just fine heating everything up and drying it out, I have it set to 83 degrees now.

46° -RADZ Feels like January out there