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Would be nice to see a biggy for multiple reasons...anything that melts the next day would be nice to pass at this point, today has that early March vibe to it

Euro meh

Euro has no support from other models. Not even the AI Euro.

I uncancelled winter last Friday, TBD if I will cancel it again

Didn't they get the fast-flow memo?

thats not good. and the AI shifted towards it. were cooked i think

And that’s a wrap for this “threat”. (just kidding)

There is a fighting chance given changes out west.

Only models that shows this. Euro has been pretty awful lately.

There is always a turd in the punchbowl. Been the theme all season. Attenuation is the word of the winter. The big winner this year is Newfoundland. The s/w's have been phasing perfectly to crush them. St. John's at 300cms. Gander over 400cms and they still have 3 months of winter left. The newfs have been stealing all our snow...lol

Have you updated your snowfall forecast for Sunday?

Euro sucks. Worse than 6z. Progressive POS Comparing to 6z is what I mean. There's some light shit, but it's def a step back. Sorry yall

It’s nice to see a consolidation of a big one at d5 but yea, that doesn’t equate to a collective nudity yet.

ugh, so close!

yes

I’m not overly worried about suppression. Can’t completely rule it out, but this is pretty amped as it crosses the Midwest. I’d rather see this a touch south right now like a lot of guidance has it.

For NYC and south yes. There's another half of the forum north of NYC.

So, I'm at 117. More (LIGHT) precip at this hour than 6z. Could just be faster...we shall next. Money panels coming up

I am sorry, do you expect the runs to look exactly the same for days 5 days out? Jesus Christ you people are annoying.

Yea, I mean....I feel better than I did a couple of days ago, but it's still a coin-flip at best.

5 folks like that . Me included

5 days out still. Need to see the ensemble.

Euro likes the pike region 15 miles either side.

Thread the needle is slang for getting a perfectly timed phase or storm separation between multiple systems. So I think this forecast qualifies. Would probably just use an ensemble blend at this point since OP runs day 5-6 usually change over time. Hence the you never want to be in the jackpot expression days 5-10. That being said, the storm signal is growing. But we’ll need a perfectly timed storm separation and phasing to get some of the higher end OP solutions. This can be a challenge so I will just go with the more conservative ensemble means until the specific details come into better focus. The highest scoring guidance this winter so far has been the EPS AIFS. So it’s nice to see it on board with the growing storm signal. We want to see the current EPS AIFS hold for a few more days to have more confidence in the specifics.