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You would think a dry summer like this would have been warmer. This month especially has been a rare August where the air condition window units were barely used.

humburrito coming soon

Monthly stats: Highest temp: 89.1 Lowest Temp: 57.5 Rainfall: 9.18”

Thoughts on this

Sun never really came out all day. It's trying again.

Big puffy fall clouds this afternoon. While sitting out on the deck spotted what I thought was just a dying branch but after a closer look it is just the fall colors starting early.

1. Excellent chance to become a TC imho; strength: likely a H and even a chance for a MH 2. 12Z major ops: -Icon: easily the most threatening of the 12Z runs to the NE Caribbean and perhaps some others later with a H at 180 moving just S of due W at 17N, 50W underneath a strong H5 high -GFS: H recurves way E of Bermuda near 55W -Euro: H recurves 250 miles SE of Bermuda -CMC easily strongest run yet with 992 mb at ~17N, 47W moving WNW but then weakening back to 1005 mb and likely about to recurve E of Bermuda per H5/climo -UKMET like last few runs no TC but still has organized LLC moving WNW to 22N,60W at 192; per H5 and climo, this is likely about to recurve probably meaning a miss of the US but even if so, could threaten Bermuda had this run gone out further -JMA not as threatening as yesterday’s run when it had a TD moving WSW at 14N, 45W at 192; today’s is further N and moving WNW at ~17N, 45W at 192 as a TD; per H5 and climo likely not US threat from there with Bermuda needing to watch it more

Seems like Summer was just given the bum's rush recently

I’m not going to say anything but a certain thread I created will be bumped again if my hunch is correct.

Pretty cloudy day. Was up in Hopkinton at State Park doing some light hiking. Not a bad day overall but not as nice as the last 2.

Im seeing double

A couple fun 12z EPS members but the most likely is OTS like usual

Agree. Summers unbearable humidity was basically condensed into a 2 month stretch from approximately June 20 - August 20 or so. With a break in early August. It was way more muggy nights than hot days. There were 14 days of 90+ at DTW, which is 1 more than normal, and a max of 95.

Increased +NAO chances this JF on CANSIPS per this:

August started cool and obviously ended very cool with just “heat” in the middle of the month which was more like very warm with obnoxious dewpoints. July was certainly hot overall but June was fairly cool until the last week to 10 days of the month. For all the talk of record setting ridges and all that stuff, it wasn’t even anything special for heat.

We all know if we have a deep trough and great pattern in October, everyone would be losing their shit that we are “wasting it” too early. We, as members of this forum, can talk ourselves into worrying about anything when it comes to winter. Warm autumn, cold autumn… we can get to the worrying part in multiple different ways.

Ah C’mon Candy, live a little! We go in the river all the time. Got to build up that immune system. It’s like George Carlin used to say, they never got sick as kids because they swam in the Brooklyn River haha. “We swam in sewage!”

how strong do you think it'll get

Started the month with a low of 62 with northeast winds that made it feel like the 50's. Love it.

Who cares. Off the top of my head, fall of 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017, and 2022 were torches up here and great winters.

Thanks, Don. Although the study ended by 2016 (date of article), I was curious about how the theory worked after 2016 for DJF NAO >+1: These are those 4 winters: 2017-8, 2019-20, 2021-2, 2023-4 2017: -2 H hits (AN): works -ACE: ~119 (way AN): works 2019: -2 H hits (AN): works -ACE: 60 (NN): no signal 2021: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE: 75.3 (AN): works 2023: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE: 76.1 (AN): works ———— Summary for these 4 2016+ >1 NAO -# of US H hits through 9/10: worked twice, no signal twice, and didn’t work zero times -ACE through 9/10: worked 3 times, no signal once, and didn’t work zero times -So, for NAO >1: despite not doing well pre-2016 and despite 2020 not working for H hits as the only 2016+ -NAO winter, 2016+ for NAO >1 did much better for both measures with none not working.

My monthly stats: Highest temp: 95 Lowest temp: 59 Highest dew point: 84 Lowest dew point: 58 Rainfall: 8.83"

All they did was show the NAO. Nowhere in that tweet did they say +NAO = warm in the east nor did they even mention temps. I’m not sure what the gripe is, it is in fact showing a +NAO and no it’s not showing big warmth either, which was my point, separate from their tweet. If the NAO is really going to be that positive, then you would need -EPO assistance on the PAC side to avoid warmth in the east, which it evidently has