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Yeah 1.5 days of meh rain and 50’s and a beautiful MDW

we've actually only verified one mid 40s Labradorian giz pattern like that, and I've seen something like 7 or 8 of them modeled at this range. I'm guessin' these have a chance of normalizing based on that track record. MDW has been improving in guidance for two days worth of runs... I realize it's about personal druthers but ... I couldn't give a ratz ass if it funks out Wed and Thur if the weekends in tact.

Nice looking hook near Schenectady

Just mowed its getting toasty and ticky out there

Yeah that was as of yesterday. Honestly I have been closely monitoring the SLF and while numbers exploded the second year they have leveled off. They are definitely a threat to vineyards but I’m not convinced they are the plague they were originally thought to be. Gypsy, emerald ash borrer beetle, Asian longhorn beetle and southern pine bark beetle all are far greater threats in my opinion.

82 here 1PM ROundup ACY: 82 EWR: 81 BLM: 81 New Brnswck: 81 PHL: 80 TTN: 79 NYC: 77 TEB: 76 LGA: 76 ISP: 73 JFK: 73

Morning 18 was nothing but dark and mist. Gross! Tough to get t-storms when there’s no sun.

suns poking out

This is ongoing now or in the past? If Walt had not posted I would not have known they were active anywhere in the area. Hope it does not get out of hand here in Jersey. The spotted lantern fly was a bit of a problem Summer of 2023 but just saw a handful last Summer so hopefully that problem is over? Have not heard much on them either.

Go for it!

Oh shit. I just looked up his contract. Yep. Your right. That's not good lol.

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend. Here is Boston, just for an example. At BOS, the linear regression goes from 52.5 -> 38.7. NYC has been a little luckier but still downward [maybe not statistically significant though]: 28.9 -> 25.9 PHL: 22.8 -> 19.9 DCA: 14.9 -> 11.2 BWI: 20.9 -> 15.1 A few additional inland sites: MDT: 33.0 -> 22.7 IPT: 42.1 -> 25.7 AVP: 47.4 -> 30.5 Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.

That’s why Dixie ally has always been especially dangerous. Suns out and temps skyrocketing. Increasing cape, but is there even a mechanism?

Any interest in starting a severe weather thread for May 17th-20th?

We do flash flooding very well in this terrain. The basins just overwhelm waterways with 1-2” in an hour. Incident Closure - NewTRAFFIC ALERT: VT-15 Cambridge is CLOSED in both directions due to a flooded driveway and possible roadway damage 1/4 mile east of the "Wrong-Way Bridge". Updates will follow when available.

What site is this from? Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

18z valid daily temps…horrid

For Manchester, we know their ASOS is running toasty. Unless it was fixed recently.

Monday is close on the GFS but looks like the rain waits until nightfall

12z gfs is noose worthy. Only saving grace would be a salvaged MDW.

Ride the GGEM it came North North North at 12z GFS looks further south now though

Run it for high temps only?

And it’s raining

Ride GGEM. South south south please