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  2. Getting a few good gusts now but the rain hasn’t been too impressive so far. Hopefully more will fill in later. I bet it’s wild at the shore tonight!
  3. We aren't nearly as warm as October 1919 at least. The coolest temperature that entire month in Knoxville was 54 (Knox recorded 50 yesterday morning) and it was almost 9 degrees above normal. It was a complete dud of a non-winter in Knoxville in 1919-1920.
  4. Today
  5. The 0Z UKMET is the first run with the followup MDR AEW as a TD with it going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19): keep in mind that this is a top tier model that is sometimes genesis shy NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32 0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34 —————— Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.
  6. I've been reading the AFD's for 25 years... even for a pedestrian storm like this one (pedestrian as in not record breaking), you would get a descriptive update every 4-6 hours in the past. Even the 7:24 PM update that @kdxken pointed out earlier, if you select the "highlight changed discussion feature" the only part that changed was the aviation forecast. That means that's mostly the same forecast from 2:30, and before that, the other significant update was 3:30 am. That's essentially only 2 major updates in 24 hours. I guess my overall point is that the lack of updates is noticeable, and disappointing, for whatever the reason is that's causing the reduction.....
  7. Seeing our first burst of moderate rain in Greenfield. .20" so far. Hartford to Springfield definitely getting the good banding tonight.
  8. Might want to check this out!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/storm-tracker Some places high up in the Mammoth Ski area may get two, maybe close to three feet of wet snow tomorrow night! This particular webstream is gonna be LIT tomorrow night as torrential snow smashes into the Main Lodge!!!! Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Woolly Cam's another good one! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Trust me I should KNOW, after three seasons!!!! This ain't just only The Beginning of the season. IT'S EARLY!!!!!!!!!! We just getting started!!!! Let's Get It Started.
  9. 0.18” as of 11:30 pm for the day since midnight. 54/52
  10. Absolutely hammering out there. Trees whipping back and forth. Constant roar and pounding rain. Great storm.
  11. Yeah, I have no idea who Kraft will look for. I feel like it might end up being someone not on everyone's radar right now. Just a hunch.
  12. Hey Don, What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1? Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F? OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction. -Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8: +4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5, 0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias. @Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no.
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