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Meanwhile, the euro and hurricane models continue to go nuclear in a few days. Jamaica is in deep trouble.

Yep. A hell of a winter storm just over the border into Canada though verbatim.

61F, mean Jim O' Brian dark clouds and the standard breeze...

Colors popping with the clouds.

HAFS-B... when it's well sw of Jamaica.

You know I left safety to go out in the hail/graupel.

Euro won't do it. Trough too far east with lows developing north of Melissa.

Can you get somewhere safe?

I think the last 5 years have been about as boring as possible in these parts. Especially the last 2-3 years. I keep thinking, incorrectly, that it can't last that much longer. We are on the verge of losing a whole generation of weineies around these parts due to it. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Latest Euro The new HAFS is going sub-900.

Just had small hail and thunder come through.

even without a connection …….. stay safe and relieved …. As always….

That is pretty funny how it is similar to Sandy's track. I suppose we can say it's a good thing that Hurricane (non-Hurricane) Sandy was a 1 in a million shot.

Where that cooling is taking place along the west coast of North America, off Baja and up into the GOA with the warmth under the Aleutians is reminiscent of a -PDO “cold horseshoe” something we haven’t seen in quite awhile

Dongs

ECAI - 12z version continues as previously 10/29-30... almost 2" in NNJ. LOOOOONG ways off and best to play it conservative. 12z once cycle trend on non event GFS/CMC is decidedly north! One cycle D7-8-9. What it does do-lends more truth to the independent CPC perspective yesterday as well as EPS suites... even if those suites are 50% too wet. May? be starting a thread tomorrow afternoon for enough rain to raise Oct amounts to normal or above by 10/31 and a period of gusty e winds 45-55 MPH on the coasts. Some sort of rain-wind event seems to be coming Oct 28-31.

Bowel?

The surface center has once again been spit out toward the west as the convection is unable to hold onto it.

https://thedigestonline.com/news/new-jersey-drone-sightings-private-contractor/

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-overshooting-15c-climate-inevitable-chief.html

12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ... Here's the 180 hour regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own.

I’ll never forgive T-Blizz for complaining his way to a jackpot in the 2022 blizzard while I was shoveling pixie dust.

one would think that a Nino developing next year would actually kick things positive for a stretch

What could possibly go wrong, LOL!

Maine sent back to the days of being the Massachusetts Bay Colony.