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Sun contaminated in Jan but not Apr?

The more central-based super warm ENSO of 2015 triggered the development of the warm pool, just as I believe a super-eastern biased El Nino would end it.

Warm season with boomers & threat of severe cannot be beat. While the hotter action will be displaced north, still should get shot(s) at quality storms.

I think it will be crucial to compare SSTs this fall to 2015 and 2023.

2015 super Nino triggered the development of the west Pacific warm pool, which is the primary catalyst for the persistent cool ENSO residue that has predominated the past decade. It wasn't as severe as 2023 because the PDO was strongly positive, agreed.

83

Bring it...I welcome that....I know it will also mean warmth, but I'm sick of the drier winters.

Yes, RONI lagged the ONI (2.4 vs 2.8)...like 2023, but the PDO was positive on 2025, whereas 2023 was negative like 1972.

Well, I had a great event in January 2024, but it wasn't too widespread. I had 19" on 1/7/2024. I think we should be able to pull off something more akin to 2015-2016 versus 2023-2024.

I’m not a lawn guy per se but ask any golf course superintendent or golfer, having irrigation is great but it’s not that same as rain. It will keep your stuff alive but not really thriving.

I have watched so much seed and fert wasted in heavy rain. You want a prolonged light to moderate strataform rain to soak it in. .

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0418.html

71F. Not bad, but goes to crap after today through the wknd.

Do you ever feel like you want to lay down flat during a lightning show and watch? Problem is as the storm moves towards you if it does you'll be drinking like a fish in short order.

Yeah likely an abrose jet later which will kill our storm chances. I expect a nice broken line with isolated severe over nj and the Hudson valley to hit a brick wall .

82.7/ 62 Deep deep summer

These are the day you daydream about in January. Morning boomers, sunny afternoon with warm temps, and the promise of storms around dusk

83F car therm in Lowell

83 oh yeah.

Going to the park with my wife and baby. Its nice in the shade. Im already sweating lol

2010 vs Chicago A little run in the playoffs would be nice, NFL draft in another 10 days and hopefully the Phils can get the bats going then training camp. Severe weather would be a bonus as well. Anything to get through these dead boring hot weather months on the colander till Fall approaches....

Man it’s hot in sun doing yard work.

Late nooners. 83 in my backyard in Tamaqua.

Expanded the slight south across much of IL/IN/OH because of this.

to add on Any supercells than can remain on the warm/south side of the front will be capable of producing tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF-2/3). Some consideration was given to including greater tornado probabilities and a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) focused across southern WI/far northern IL. But, convection may have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly this evening, so confidence was not high enough for a categorical upgrade at this time. Regardless, very large to giant hail (potentially up to 3-4 inches in diameter) will be a threat with sustained supercells, and a swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with a convective cluster spreading eastward across southern Lower MI this evening into tonight.