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ICON as well now.

So summer but with lower dews. Cool cool.

Friday looks like a winner. 75-80 with dews in the low to mid 60's. Glad I didn't uninstall - we leave in until further notice.

AC was on baby. Tomorrow dews near 70 or higher move in.

GFS has gone back and forth with a CAG or western Caribbean genesis for several days now. The Euro not so much. This far out

I wanted to turn it on… the boss said nope.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/09/guidance-aligning-with-eastern-mass.html Preliminary composite out..subject to changes next 6 weeks. DJFM 2025-2026

Guidance Aligning with Eastern Mass Weather Expectation for Weak La Niña Confidence in ENSO Analogs Growing September ENSO Update The updated consensus from the International Research Institute (IRI) for the month of September has finally reflected the significant cooling trend that Eastern Mass Weather has been advertising since the month of July. Indeed, after supporting an ENSO neutral peak that was warmer than the La Niña threshold (-0.5C) in region 3.4 all throughout this past summer, anywhere between -.31C and -.42C, the September suite now matches the preliminary Eastern Mass Weather forecast within a peak range of between -0.5C and -0.7C. When viewing the latest subsurface data, it is easy to see why this latest suite of guidance finally followed the relatively aggressive trend towards cool ENSO that had been anticipated. Note the recent burst of easterly trades during much of the month of August in the annotation below, which triggered the upwelling of the rather extensive subsurface cold pool over the eastern half of the ENSO regions to the surface. The ramifications of this expected development are two-fold. Firstly, the notion of this particular cool ENSO event meeting the technical definition of La Niña per CPC cannot yet entirely be discounted. While the concept of an official La Niña designation remains dubious considering the next round of trades is expected to be weaker, they had been relatively impressive throughout the summer, and were even prevalent enough to compare favorably to those that normally precede the development of weak La Niña. Additionally, the pressure dipole, which consists of lower pressure across the western Pacific and higher pressures to the east in a developing cool ENSO event, has also been slightly more impressive than the weak La Niña group. This is unsurprising considering that the MJJA mean SOI value for 2025 is 2.96, which is actually slightly higher (more La Niña like) than the weak La Nina composite MJJA value of 2.71. What is being observed is a continuation of the predominate trend of the past decade for the atmosphere to be more representative of La Niña than the ONI would imply due to the western Pacific warm pool. Warmer West/Cooler East Pacific SST Anomaly Dipole Characteristic of Cool ENSO This is why the Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI), which in a simplistic sense de-trends the general background warming of the tropics that is attributed to climate change from ENSO, is of greater importance. The current tri-monthly JJA RONI value of -.46 is already bordering on La Niña territory, and is likely to finish anywhere between. -0.9 and -1.1 based on analog seasons. The continued descent of both the IOD (left) and the AAM (right) is also reflective of an atmosphere that is entering La Niña mode more aggressively than the ONI would imply, and thus rendering an official designation per ONI, which is still considered unlikely due to the fairly late start of the more concerted cooling, moot. The second consequence of the stronger interval of easterly trades triggering the surfacing of the subsurface cold pool in the eastern half of the ENSO region is that it reaffirms the idea that this particular cool ENSO event will remain at least somewhat eastern biased throughout the fall and into boreal winter season. Expectation for Eastern-Biased Cool ENSO Remains The rapid cooling recorded in the Eastern region of 1.2 from 0.8C above average on August 6th to -0.3 below average by August 27 is very evident in the CPC data below. Date 1.2 3 3.4 4 06AUG2025 0.8 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 13AUG2025 0.6 0.0 -0.3 0.1 20AUG2025 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 27AUG2025 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 03SEP2025 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 10SEP2025 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 17SEP2025 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 Note that although this was followed by a slight recovery with the abatement and translation westward of the trades in September, the event currently remains consistent with the east-based composite in which the max anomalies are centered between about 120 and 140 degrees longitude. Current SST Profile Matches East-Based Composite (Max Anomaly 120-140W) East-Based La Niña Composite (Max Anomaly 120W) The persistence of this regime is generally supported by the consensus of guidance, which is perhaps slightly more supportive of an eastward leaning basin-wide event by winter, as opposed to a bonafide east-base event. This is perceived to be a rather trivial discrepancy, especially given the modest strength of the ENSO event. The newest El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) guidance from JAMSTEC has also remained fairly consisted in it's depiction of an EMI value of around -.20 to -.30 during the boreal winter season. This range is similar to the EMI analogs of 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, which is supported by the similarity in both the placement (near 140 longitude) and the intensity of the respective subsurface cold pool analogs relative to 2025. One final point of interest in closing is that the only slight change from the EMI August guidance is that it delayed the onset of the eastward translation, presumably owed to the fact that it took until latter August for the subsurface cold pool to surface in region 1.2. This will be a trend to watch moving though the fall in the event that the recent cooling in region 1.2 becomes a trend; however, this particular region is prone to volatility and the subsurface is currently not conducive to any such trend. Now that enough information has been gleaned throughout the summer and into the onset of boreal autumn, a preliminary seasonal composite can be introduced. Preliminary DJFM Seasonal 500mb/Temperature Anomaly Composite The operative word here is "preliminary", as this these forecast products will be subject to changes over the course of the next six weeks, prior to the issuance of the final products in November. That being said, without further ado: DJFM 2025-2026 The above composite is the product of an integration of polar, extra tropical Pacific, ENSO and summer-fall temperature analogs. One final ENSO update will be issued in latter October before the complete Winter Outlook 2025-2026 is published in November.

Wow disgusting mid july like dew points in place for the next several days. Yuck and why is this happening when it's almost October :/

had to fire up the AC here late yesterday. very tropical feel out there-hopefully will wring out some rain here later

people hear what they want to hear...we get a dud winter and folks yell bust even though no one predicted a big winter

The visible loop confirms 93L has a well-defined surface vortex. It just needs to exit the shear zone.

That’s about as likely as you posting a picture of your patrol car

Have to hope for an ease with the confluence.

Haha, you guys cashed in on some coastals over the years that didn't do much here, but it does find a way to eventually even out.

0.05" yesterday, 0.10" so far today. up to 1.3" MTD

I will try and get there. Thanks! Very dry up here. Rivers and streams ridiculously low.

Today is the 75th anniversary of Black (or Dark) Sunday. Here is a story from the front page of the Pittsburgh Press on Monday, September 25, 1950:

Today is the 75th anniversary of Black/Dark Sunday. Here is a story from the front page of the Pittsburgh Press on Monday, September 25, 1950:

Euro all of a sudden really into rain late Saturday into Sunday.

Getting a pretty good soaking by under the beam sheet drizzle now.

I begrudgingly gave you a like lol

This was a bad time to be alive, I think London had a similar instance of air pollution, but there thousands of people died (there was some sort of inversion that caused the poisonous chemicals to remain near the ground and spread via a mysterious yellow fog.)

This was our best storm in YEARS, notice how JFK had over 6 inches of snow too we have a Central NJ kind of climate here lol

Yeah, I suspect haze and smoke from human-caused pollution also contributed to the darkness. In those days, it wasn't unheard of to have local spells of pollution pretty much block out the sky on their own. Here's another site from 25 years ago, with witness experiences in the comments: darksunday Looking at the area that was darkest, maybe a combination of wildfire smoke, industrial pollution, and lake effect clouds with the record cold air passing over the Lakes on the northwest flow.