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No way I could buy that those two waves don't destroy each other or do something else dumb like snow in the south, lol

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

April Fool's Day looks unsettled with a front moving through bringing cooler wx with scattered shwrs/stms ahead most likely.

I’ll take that surface setup on the GFS for Sunday.

I am using central park which has an average high of just above 39.

That and the weeknd would be quite the local pack for you huh

When ineedsnow gives it 10k:1 odds you know it’s over.

I do? That’s news to me

I know the Canadian typically overdoes the cold, but that is some cold air early next week. Lows close to 0 and feels like in the -10s.....brrr.

Because warm wx without dews is boring and is generally associated with boredom. Dews keep you warm at night outside , no need for hoodies etc.. and always risks of storms . Warm and dry is akin to cold and dry. BOREDOM

St. Patrick's Day looks fair, and cool with what looks like a long wave moving in that will up the temps, and stm potential.

You do.

Nope....will never enjoy that. But I am sick of useless cold and a hobby that is more rewarding.

Who does that ?

Not when you forecast based on 99% emotion, no.

The 12z GEM sure makes the most sense given the cold which is incoming. Lots of small waves.

Employee Appreciation Day on March 6 looks pretty good, but chilly. Some energy from the W may sneak into our region in the days after.

can i just interject/ask? does it have to be dews? why not just warm weather.

Canadian and a few other models like something bear the 20th too.

Not at all. The warm up started on 1/4. From my point and click. 1/15 - 43 1/16-34 1/17 - 40 1/18 - 36 Highs 36-43 are within the normal range for mid-January. So if we cool down on 1/19 as currently forecasted, the warm up was 1/4 to 1/18

Model spread six days out is pretty wild. Basically there's two camps, energy breaks free from primarily trough (GFS, ICON, UKMET) and everything else that keeps the upper level energy consolidated to our North

I'll take the Canadian please. 2 shots

You’re making the natural progression Scooter and I and most others in here made. You’re getting closer to loving dews

Next storms to watch is 18-20

It’s amazing how just subtle digs south and west have outsized impacts with regards to the second system. That GFS run was so close to a decent system