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You will by tomorrow and next week I think-ugh

As we saw back in 2023-2024, the atmospheric response from the El Nino Ridge parked just north in Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS was one of the strongest on record. But the El Niño trough expression through the Aleutian Low and trough across the south to the Mid-Atlantic was much weaker than usual for such a strong Nino ridge which lead to the record warmth with that event. So even the ONI reaching 2.1 really didn’t do that event justice since it failed to incorporate the record Nino 4 +30C warm pool which was the warmest on record. You will notice that the MEI and SOI responses were also much weaker than usual for such a strong event. It will be interesting to see as this one develops whether the SOI, MEI, and RONI lag behind again. All I can say at this early juncture is that the WWB atmospheric component from March and April was much stronger than in 2023 near all time record values leading to the very impressive OKW beneath the surface.

It is way too early for this shit.

Happy husband appreciation day everyone. Just letting everyone know so your loved one doesn’t inform you about it until 10pm.

Yeah, on the HRRR and NAM 3k everyone gets something, but the lower totals are around 0.05".

Its been brutal the last 2-3 days. 40s and 50s with little to no sun.

This years team certainly has flaws but they definitely don’t quit. Last year it felt like any deficit was game over.

It really is amazing how that works

Looks like the STJ really becomes active as we head into May with the rapidly developing El Niño.

If you could somehow harness the energy spent by triggered folks responding to your posts about the AC and dews, you could power the whole Tolland massif (except for when lines are downed in storms).

I don’t think we are going to have to wait for the spring barrier to end with this one. It has already tipped its hand, just like 1982, 1997 and 2015 did by this time. The big ones all do. IMO this one is headed to super and very likely to be an east-based/EP event

No doubt. But it was a phenomenal week around here. Even today bright and sunny this morning and was able to run in shorts and short sleeves . Not looking forward to Monday run in winter gear

What were the highs the last few days down there? Whenever I look I see low 50s from BOS to GHG.

Recent rise in Nino 3.4 SST is similar in timing and magnitude to last 3 super ninos. Chart below shows 1982, 1997 and 2015 along with this year.

Will be weeks and weeks before you need it again

Sheet drizzle here. At least my grass seed is happy.

Jeremiah Jackson > Jackson Holliday

Nice to finally be able to turn off the AC after 4 straight days

Unless he turns into fungalstein again

Aside from a day here or there warmth is gone. At least it’s anti-stein so he’ll be happy.

45.2° FG It’s thicc out there

+ASS

46F/fog

The record number of days through April 30th is 14 set in 1976. 2025 and 2026 are tied in second place with 12. Today 2026 will move into second place by itself.