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Assume all will be negative north and east of HFD

Guess the good news is its not July,August otherwise a ridge is setiing in the next couple days and probably should be a fixture the next several days

What's even more interesting about how hostile this season has been is that what does develop barely lasts for more than a day. Arthur, Christobal and Dolly all lasted a single day. What does make it through the grinder can barely even last if it does form.

With not even an average hurricane season to distract us

Well the structure of the pattern is a bit different this go around with the core of the ridging a bit farther north and east so this bodes well for NY into New England. There will be lots of details to iron out too. For example, there will be a weak stationary front within the region which will be the boundary between unseasonably warm/humid weather versus cooler and less humid. This will be critical because this will establish the instability gradient. Secondly, the real big question is EML advection and can we maintain an EML into the region.

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

1.30" total

No reason to break the summer pattern. Those two zones locked in , in May and has been relentless with each front

Oh, phew...

Some of the maples here in town showing a little color, but that is mainly due to drought stress. Colors may be less robust unless we get good rains coming up.

warm and rainy

Well, at least 2023 snowed in vermont. 2015 was an utter shut out. Not an accumulating flake even at elevation, and repeated washouts. I'm already mentally prepared for the skiing in northern VT to be garbage this december but there are certainly levels of garbage.

Looks like High Pressure building in late next week behind the passage of the front late Wednesday which would bode well for a dry weekend

Labor Day pm a lock to be hot and humid. Summer going out with a bang!! Looking forward to the juiced up storm opportunities too!

They were both brutal...like...how painful? Slam the refrigerator door shut on my balls, or kick me as hard as you can?

Should I feel honored?

Hi guys, hate to interrupt, but my daughter’s getting married 9/5 in Sterling Ct. Ryan’s 10 day looks good, but any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

I will probably have to delete some attachments soon but doing a quick comparison to 1997 and 2026, slightly off time frames but similar process took place and we maybe should see similar results happen? Ill make one for 10-16 to end of 1997 at some point. Shame we have so much cutoff right now. Open up new window and check them side by side to get a better comparison.

Ultimately, I can see two corridors, one from SW CT into NJ and a second across NY into northwest MA/VT...this area could have potentially greater severe probabilities and tornado threat, especially if that LLJ ramps up a bit earlier than forecast

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

How much though? 2015 levels of suck or more like 2023?

Congrats NJ to DXR

Congrats DXR southwest