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after a brief moderate warmup this week we can safely say summer is not only over on the calendar but warm days in the 80's will be a distant memory.

^How well did Jamstec’s May forecast for JJA verify in the CONUS? May ‘26 Jamstec forecast for summer ‘26: Actual for summer ‘26: Jamstec forecast excellent in E US; overall CONUS pattern excellent with warmest in SW US and coolest Midwest although it wasn’t quite warm enough in sone of the SW US:

Coin flip tbh. Might as well!

Here’s my analysis of the new Jamstec forecast for winter: hint SE cold lovers will enjoy this as it is progging the coldest winter in the SE/Mid-South since 2014-5!

So much whiskey that you probably fainted.

It could be that I’ve gotten into some whiskey this evening, but I can faintly see my breath outside.

-Sep Jamstec winter forecasts going back to 2017-8 are available at the site to compare to -Sep ‘26 is vs all Sep forecasts back to ‘17 by a good margin the coldest DJF in the CONUS overall, by a very wide margin the coldest DJF in the E 1/2 overall, and is easily the coldest for the SE, midsouth, S Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. I couldn’t even find a colder one than this for the corridor from Chic to NYC. -Sep ‘26 is the wettest overall for the E US vs the other Sep DJF forecasts -June-Sep ‘26 are all very similar in the CONUS for DJF ‘26-7 and are the most consistent of any DJF forecasts back to 2017-8! Here’s the ‘23 Sep forecast for DJF for comparison (the 2nd coldest since ‘17): coldest is -0.5 to -1C: Compare that to ‘26: like night and day with coldest -2 to -3C! This would easily be the coldest winter for the SE, Mid-South, and S Plains since 2014-5: How did Sep JAMSTEC verify in the E US overall? ’17: too warm NE/close SE ’18: close NE/too cold SE ’19: too cold ’20: close NE/too warm SE ’21: N/A ’22: too cold ’23: too cold ’24: too warm ’25: too warm So, for these 8 winters, Jamstec: -in NE was too warm 3 times, too cold 3 times, and close twice…so neutral bias averaged out -in SE was too warm 3 times, too cold 4 times, and close once…so, very slight cold bias but pretty neutral overall averaged out -Keep in mind that this cold E US forecast is with Jamstec progging an E based super Nino.

Niiiiice, so you’re predicting a blizzard this year…

Blaming Trump for the El Nino is about as stupid as Trump taking credit for no hurricanes. Just stupid! If we went net zero 10 yrars ago we'd still have this Super El Nino. 10 years didn't do it.

What if? Well...at least q-Schmegma loved your comment

Nice to see your fresh take on a new season.

Nice evening up this way. Felt like fall today at the homestead.

Down to 52. Gonna be a crisp morning.

It was pretty nice in Greenfield today. Full sun, mid 70s. A little bit too breezy to make temperatures optimal, but we take.

My DP fell from 73 to 53 since midnight

Today's Highs: PHL: 78 New Brnswck: 77 BLM: 77 JFK: * 77 ACY: 77 EWR: 76 TEB: 75 LGA: 75 TTN: 75 NYC: 74 ISP: 73

Dude. Your wife sucks lol.

COC is 80+. Not Chamber of Cold.

Far from it

September Jamstec. It may not get the forecast right, but it'll at least get you to make an optometrist appointment.